Forecast on possible SEC decision dates for major crypto-ETF applications, based on known deadlines and typical commission behavior (considering possible deadline extensions):
Forecast timeline of SEC decisions on crypto-ETFs (for 2025):
1. iShares Ethereum Trust (BlackRock)
Expected decision date: July–August 2025
Comment: This is the most likely candidate for approval in the upcoming wave of decisions.
2. VanEck Ethereum Trust
Expected decision date: August–September 2025
Comment: May be considered soon after the application from BlackRock — as part of a 'package approval'.
3. Grayscale Ethereum Trust (conversion)
Expected decision date: Fall 2025 or later
Comment: Legal pressure and the status of ETH will be key. Further delays are possible.
4. Bitwise Ethereum ETF
Expected decision date: September–October 2025
Comment: May be considered in parallel with VanEck and Hashdex.
5. Hashdex Ethereum ETF (hybrid)
Expected decision date: September 2025
Comment: Interesting in its structure, but this could either help or raise additional questions for the SEC.
6. Ark 21Shares Solana ETF
Expected decision date: 2026 (or later)
Comment: Low priority due to classification issues with SOL. A legal precedent or change in SEC policy may be needed.
The SEC traditionally uses maximum review periods (up to 240 days from the date of application), so even after submission, all applications go through several stages of delays.