甜梦说币
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The short-selling liquidity of BTC around 96,500 has reached a liquidatable peak, which is very similar to the previous complete breakthrough of 85,000.
On the other hand, the liquidity gap around 97k to 98k has not been fully filled yet, so the probability of liquidation at 96,500 in the short-term market is quite high. However, whether it can ultimately enter the liquidation zone above 98k is still very uncertain in my opinion…
So there are two theoretical scenarios:
1. After the macro data is released, the price fluctuates rapidly in the short term and liquidates the short-term liquidity above 96,500, then the price begins to pull back and returns to the current consolidation range;
Then we will judge whether the price rebounds based on the distribution of newly added liquidity before Friday…
2. As macro data is released one after another, the market views it as bearish, and the price does not liquidate the short-selling liquidity at 96,500, directly starting to pull back;
If the increase in long positions afterward is not too aggressive, and the overall leverage is not too high, then after a round of pullback, the price may still rise again to liquidate the short-selling liquidity at 96,500…
In short, Wednesday's small non-farm payroll and GDP, and Friday's large non-farm payroll and unemployment rate, will inevitably bring huge volatility to the market, and there is even a possibility of a scenario where prices rise first and then fall. It is advisable to be cautious.
On the other hand, the liquidity gap around 97k to 98k has not been fully filled yet, so the probability of liquidation at 96,500 in the short-term market is quite high. However, whether it can ultimately enter the liquidation zone above 98k is still very uncertain in my opinion…
So there are two theoretical scenarios:
1. After the macro data is released, the price fluctuates rapidly in the short term and liquidates the short-term liquidity above 96,500, then the price begins to pull back and returns to the current consolidation range;
Then we will judge whether the price rebounds based on the distribution of newly added liquidity before Friday…
2. As macro data is released one after another, the market views it as bearish, and the price does not liquidate the short-selling liquidity at 96,500, directly starting to pull back;
If the increase in long positions afterward is not too aggressive, and the overall leverage is not too high, then after a round of pullback, the price may still rise again to liquidate the short-selling liquidity at 96,500…
In short, Wednesday's small non-farm payroll and GDP, and Friday's large non-farm payroll and unemployment rate, will inevitably bring huge volatility to the market, and there is even a possibility of a scenario where prices rise first and then fall. It is advisable to be cautious.
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