As Bitcoin rises under the influence of whales, hidden risks to be aware of also emerge.

As whale transactions increase prices, Bitcoin's profit levels are rising, but there are some risks to be mindful of during this process. By analyzing the current market dynamics, it is possible to see more clearly how whale movements affect prices and the potential risks involved.

Whale Movements and Institutional Participation: Is Bitcoin Rising?

Large-volume Bitcoin transactions have recently shown a significant increase. Transfers over $10 million increased by 183.45%, while transactions between $1 million and $10 million rose by 82.26%. Additionally, transactions between $100,000 and $1 million increased by 38.41%, and transactions between $10,000 and $100,000 rose by 36.17%.

This explosive increase generally indicates a resurgence of whale and institutional transactions that signal significant market movements. Therefore, strong participation from deep pockets provides important support for Bitcoin's rise. Bitcoin's exchange flows are also generally on an upward trend. At the time of publication, BTC's outflows were recorded at $603.07 million, inflows at $435.99 million, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $167 million.

Historically, continuously emerging funds are associated with accumulation trends and reduce selling pressure on exchanges. Therefore, the continuous withdrawal of liquidity from trading platforms indicates that investors prefer to hold, providing additional support to Bitcoin's resilience at the $95,000 level.

Bullish Nerves: Mixed On-Chain Indicators for Bitcoin

Although there are bullish signals, on-chain valuations present some mixed warnings. Bitcoin's MVRV Long/Short Difference has dropped by 1.73%, indicating that a few short-term investors have made significant gains. While this is generally a positive situation at the point of realizing profits, it may lead to limited gains.

However, the NVT ratio has shown a significant increase of 598.28%, indicating that the value of the network is growing much faster than the trading volume. This means that limited unrealized gains may reduce selling risks, while an overheated NVT ratio serves as a warning that Bitcoin's valuation may exceed actual network usage. The Binance BTC/USDT liquidation map shows that some critical risk areas have formed below Bitcoin's current price. Between $90,000 and $93,000, there are dense areas where high-leverage long positions could be liquidated if prices fall.

Future Direction of Bitcoin: Short Squeeze or Long Liquidation?

Above the $95,000 level, accumulated short liquidations may aggressively increase, especially at levels above $97,000. If Bitcoin continues to rise while maintaining its strength, this could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate upward momentum. However, if Bitcoin drops below $93,000, it could lead to a buildup of liquidations in long positions.

As a result, Bitcoin's current rise is supported by momentum from whale movements, but the risks that arise during this process require investors to be cautious.


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