Profit supply is close to the warning line, concerns over market overheating
Bitcoin's profit supply has soared to 86.87%, just one step away from the historically warning level of 90% that indicates market overheating. Breaking through this level typically brings a strong short-term rebound, but is usually followed by a deep correction. Historical data shows that during the last pullback, profit supply bottomed at 75%, providing key support.
Although the current rebound has sparked market optimism, the rising risk of profit-taking is quietly accumulating, and investors need to exercise caution.
Whale transaction volume surges, institutions pushing prices up?
The volume of large Bitcoin transactions has significantly increased, with transfers over $10 million surging by 183.45%, while transactions between $1 million and $10 million also rose by 82.26%. This explosive growth indicates a resurgence of whale and institutional activity, which typically signals an important trend in the market.
Well-capitalized players provide strong momentum for Bitcoin's continuous rise, further pushing it to six figures.
What impact does capital outflow have on Bitcoin's rise?
As of now, Bitcoin's capital outflow has reached $603 million, while inflow stands at $436 million, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $167 million.
History shows that sustained capital outflow is usually associated with accumulation trends, helping to alleviate sell-off pressure on exchanges, thereby providing more support for Bitcoin around current price levels.
Bitcoin valuation warning: Is the rise stable?
Despite the bullish signals, on-chain valuation has sent mixed warnings. Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) difference has dropped to 1.73%, indicating that short-term holders have limited profit space, which usually restricts large profit-taking.
However, the NVT ratio has soared to 598.28, indicating that the growth in the network's value far exceeds its transaction volume. This suggests that Bitcoin's valuation may be higher than its actual network usage, implying overheating risks.
Risk of liquidation clusters is about to explode
There is a key risk in the range below Bitcoin's current price of $90,000 to $93,000. If the price drops, the high-leverage long positions in this area may be quickly liquidated. Meanwhile, in the area above $95,000, short liquidations will begin to increase, especially above $97,000.
Therefore, if Bitcoin can maintain its strength and continue to rise, it may trigger a short squeeze, accelerating the ascent. However, if it falls below $93,000, it will trigger long liquidation, bringing significant risk.
Conclusion: Bulls still have the advantage, but be wary of potential risks
The momentum behind Bitcoin's rise comes from whales accumulating, healthy supply dynamics, and ongoing capital outflow. However, network activity signals and a fragile liquidation pattern remind investors to remain cautious.
If Bitcoin can hold the support area of $94,000 to $95,000 and avoid large-scale liquidations, it still has the potential to break through $100,000, ushering in an explosive breakout.
