$BTC

*Bearish Scenario (Probability 55%) Bearish

- **Trigger Conditions**：

If the Bitcoin price cannot break through the resistance level of 95,500 yuan, RSI divergence is confirmed, and on-chain selling pressure continues.

- **Target Range**：

- First Support: 94,500 yuan (4-hour EMA15);

- Second Support: 93,000 yuan (short-term psychological level and lower boundary of demand zone);

- Extreme Case: If it breaks below 93,000 yuan, it may quickly drop to 91,700 yuan (key demand zone).

2. **Bullish Scenario (Probability 35%)**

- **Trigger Conditions**：ETF funds continue to flow in, breaking through 95,500 yuan and stabilizing, triggering short-seller stop-losses.

- **Target Range**：

- First Resistance: 96,000-96,500 yuan (previous high and near the upper Bollinger band);

- Target after breakout: 97,600-98,500 yuan (Fibonacci retracement and strong resistance of the Bollinger band).

3. **Sideways Consolidation (Probability 10%)**

- Price fluctuates narrowly between 94,500-95,500 yuan, waiting for clearer trend signals (such as significant news or changes in on-chain data).

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**Operational Suggestions and Risk Control**

1. **Stop-Loss Setting**: It is recommended to set a stop-loss above 96,500 yuan to guard against sudden short squeeze risks.

2. **Partial Take Profit**: If the price declines, partial liquidation can be done at 94,500 yuan and 93,000 yuan in stages, retaining some positions to cope with extreme volatility.