While bitcoin stagnates around $94,000, a dissonance emerges. Institutions, on the other hand, seem to shout the opposite: $3 billion injected in one week through Bitcoin ETFs, despite an estimated 40% discount. A gap so striking that it raises questions. Why this massive influx while the price seems depressed? Behind the figures, a silent battle is waged between the apparent discount and strategic conviction.
IN SUMMARY:
Bitcoin remains around $94,000, but institutions are massively investing in ETFs.
There is a 40% discount between the current price and the estimated value of Bitcoin, valued at $130,000 based on production costs after the halving.
Large BTC outflows from exchanges to private wallets reinforce the strategic accumulation of institutions.
BITCOIN: THE PARADOX OF DISCOUNT AND THE INSATIABLE APPETITE OF INSTITUTIONS.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, drops a bomb: bitcoin would intrinsically be worth $130,000. What’s his calculation? An unrelenting equation based on the energy spent to mine it after the April 2024 halving. Each BTC would now cost $77,000 to produce, a technical floor often ignored. However, the market remains deaf, fixed on $94,000. An aberration? For the informed, it’s a signal: real value transcends short-term fluctuations.
CryptoQuant data sheds light on a troubling reality: over 36,000 BTC left Coinbase and Binance at the end of April. These massive outflows, often synonymous with institutional accumulation, remind us of a saying: 'When exchanges empty out, private wallets fill up.' Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg analyst, confirms: $3 billion fled to Bitcoin ETFs in just a few days. A move that evokes more cold planning than speculation.
But beware of hasty conclusions. In 2021, similar outflows did not prevent a collapse after the Chinese ban. Joao Wedson of Alphractal moderates: 'A one-time outflow guarantees nothing. Only prolonged outflows, like during the FTX collapse, signal a true change.' Institutions play a subtle game, navigating between opportunism and caution.
ETF OF $3 BILLION: THE FRACTAL THAT COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING.
The $3 billion injected into the ETFs is no coincidence. They reveal a deeper mechanism: simplified access for large holders. Previously, buying bitcoin involved operational risks. Now, ETFs offer a safe lock. The result: an influx of clean capital, uncoupled from the fluctuations of exchanges. A silent revolution, but with major consequences for liquidity and price stability.
For optimists, everything seems to be drawing in their favor. A 7 to 10% rise in the coming days could push bitcoin beyond $100,000. However, the market has evolved. In 2024, price discovery happened without much resistance. Today, large whales are watching, ready to sell at the slightest sign of weakness, even with the $90,000 support well established. This 40% undervaluation acts as a magnet, attracting investors while simultaneously generating fears.
