Today's Market Observation: Mysterious funds are secretly buying near 94,000...
In the early hours today, Arizona passed the first Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act in the U.S. Although it still needs the governor's signature to take effect, this is already a significant advance.
Back to the market, Bitcoin is currently moving sideways around 94,000, with a large number of sell orders above and seemingly someone secretly supporting below. Logically, important economic data is set to be released on Wednesday, and the market should have declined in advance for hedging, but today it is showing unusual resilience against decline. This situation may indicate that large funds in the spot market are controlling the situation, with specific reasons discussed later.
From real-time trading data, today during the day, a mysterious buyer directly bought 1,500 Bitcoins using market orders. Such consecutive large orders usually bring the price down, but this time it seems there is a giant support level around 94,000, absorbing whatever is sold (see Figure 1). So at least before the data comes out on Wednesday, shorts should not be too greedy. Remember last week when MicroStrategy bought the dip around 92,000 at the "eating price"? This time they might continue to accumulate around 94,000.
Regarding liquidity, shorts are currently quite aggressive; as long as someone gets liquidated, they will continue to add to their shorts. After a breach below 95,500 yesterday, the shorts above 95,800 are making profits, leading to a significant accumulation of shorts in the range of 95,800 to 96,400 (see Figure 2). Once a collective liquidation is triggered, it may cause significant volatility.
Bulls need to be cautious about the range of 91,500 to 92,500; however, fortunately, there are mysterious funds supporting around 94,000, so there is no immediate concern about forced liquidation.
U.S. stocks are also consolidating now, and the overall market is waiting for the data release on Wednesday. Today, two types of operations are recommended:
Follow the mysterious funds to buy low: enter the range of 94,000 to 94,500 (just at the price gap position), aiming for above 95,000. If you notice the buying funds retreating and the price drops below 93,800, exit immediately. Bet on shorts for liquidation: place short orders in the range of 95,800 to 96,500, aiming for a pullback to around 94,500. If the price stabilizes above 97,000, stop loss.
Personal opinion, for reference only.
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