The team behind the official token MELANIA has recently made sales totaling over 1.5 million dollars over the span of three days. This maneuver, indicated by blockchain data, suggests a programmed selling strategy that risks exerting downward pressure on the token’s price.
On April 28, the team indeed sold an additional $930,000 of tokens, two days after conducting another sale round of $630,000. These movements are not random but reflect a well-defined sales pattern known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA).
What is the Dollar-Cost Averaging strategy?
The strategy of Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) involves selling or purchasing a fixed amount of assets at regular intervals, reducing the risk of extreme volatility and diluting the purchase or sale price over time. In the case of MELANIA, the team seems to adopt this approach to gradually sell large quantities of tokens without causing too abrupt fluctuations.
Furthermore, as highlighted by the crypto intelligence system Lookonchain, the team not only sold tokens but also managed the project’s liquidity, strategically adding or removing funds to facilitate sales.
Recent performance of the MELANIA token and market context
Despite the consistent sales, MELANIA has shown a recent recovery: in the last week, the token has grown by over 21%. However, this growth remains modest when compared to the all-time high of 13.7 dollars, reached on January 20, 2025, the day of the inauguration of President Donald Trump.
As of today, the price of the token is almost 96% below its all-time high, a drastic drop that reflects the volatility and the difficulties of the project in maintaining investor interest.
The role of big bets: short positions on MELANIA
The situation becomes even more complex considering the activity of some large investors, defined as “whales” (balene) in crypto jargon. A particularly active wallet recently deposited 1.33 million dollars in USDC (a stablecoin pegged to the dollar) to open a short position with 2x leverage on the MELANIA token at the price of 14.7 dollars.
In simple terms, a short position means betting on the decline of the token’s price, with the goal of profiting if MELANIA depreciates further. However, the position is subject to liquidation if the price exceeds 21.50 dollars, which limits the risks for those who invest in this way.
The decline of the memecoin supercycle: data and market dynamics
Memecoins constituted the second most relevant sector in the crypto market in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating how the narrative of these satirical or pop culture-inspired tokens remains popular. According to CoinGecko, memecoins attracted about 27% of global investor attention, while tokens dedicated to **artificial intelligence (AI)** took the lead with over 35% of the attention.
However, the performance of the TRUMP token and, more generally, that of MEME-tokens like MELANIA, seems to indicate a decline of this memecoin “supercycle”.
Significant decrease in activity on memecoin
According to the data collected by Pump.fun, the platform dedicated to the launch projects of memecoin, the activity has undergone a sharp contraction: the number of active wallets has decreased from 2.85 million in the week of January 20, 2025, to about 1.44 million at the end of March, a reduction of more than 49%.
This trend suggests a progressive loss of interest and a possible saturation of the memecoin market, which has enjoyed a peak of popularity in recent months thanks especially to initiatives linked to public figures like Trump.
Prospects for MELANIA and the memecoin market
In light of the scheduled sales by the team and the betting activity of major investors, MELANIA is in a critical phase. Although the recent 21% recovery is encouraging, the strategic positioning and overall reduction in activity in the memecoin sector indicate a possible stabilization or further decline in price in the medium term.
Furthermore, the growing interest in AI tokens seems to be diverting resources and capital from the memecoin segment, forcing projects like MELANIA to rethink their strategies.
What to expect and how to navigate the memecoin market
The MELANIA case demonstrates the importance of closely monitoring team activities and whale wallets, because they strongly influence price behavior. With a DCA selling strategy in place and the pressure from short positions, the token remains vulnerable.
For investors and enthusiasts of the sector, it becomes essential to adopt an informed and prudent approach, balancing the opportunities for profit with the risks arising from volatility and the increasingly competitive market dynamics.
Ultimately, despite the media allure of Trump’s official memecoin, the data indicate a market in evolution, where sustainability and differentiation play a key role in determining the future of emerging crypto projects like MELANIA.
