BTC Price Impact Analysis & Forecast 2025-2029

This chart simulates a more realistic government BTC reserve scenario from 2025 to 2029, assuming the US holds 200,000 BTC in 2025 and then increases to 5% (≈800,000 BTC) in 2029. Europe and Asia accumulate linearly to 44% and 24% of available supply, respectively.

US Reserves:

Starts at 200,000 BTC × $95,000 = $19 billion in 2025

Grows to 800,000 BTC × $1 million = $800 billion in 2029

European Reserves (44% ≈7.04 million BTC):

$668 billion → $7.04 trillion

Asia Reserves (24% ≈3.84 million BTC):

$366 billion → $3.84 trillion

Total Government Reserves:

$1.05 trillion in 2025 → $11.68 trillion in 2029

Key Points:

Current US Holdings (200,000 BTC) creates an initial floor of $19 billion in 2025.

Increasing to 5% would significantly amplify the value of the reserve in a bull market environment.

Total government holdings (~73% of supply) would become an $11 trillion asset base by 2029.

This supply lock-up promotes scarcity, making $1 million in BTC feasible—and arguably conservative—in this scenario.