Bitcoin closing weekly just below $94,000 has resulted in an annual total return of 53.61%.
Since the most recent halving event, the market has shifted from a state of euphoria at the beginning of 2024 to a 'mature trend' based on on-chain growth, rather than speculative frenzy.
The fundamentals of Bitcoin are overcoming fear and speculation.
Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. points out that the year-over-year actual value, a measure of the average price at which BTC last moved, has increased by 61.82%, outperforming the 8.98% decline in MVRV (market value over actual value) year-over-year.
This indicates that long-term holders are increasing their base price faster than speculative price increases, a healthy signal for the current cycle.
Negative MVRV indicates that Bitcoin is trading below its fundamental value compared to a year ago, a pattern that often precedes strong bullish trends.
The compression of value creates opportunities for the next price rally, with analysts eyeing a new peak above $110,000 if demand accelerates.
Similarly, the actual value of Bitcoin by cohort shows that speculative fees are gradually decreasing, as the cost basis of 1-month holders is over 5% lower than that of the 6-month cohort.
The current market resembles past accumulation phases, with many signals indicating that it is only 5 to 6 weeks away from the 180-day average point, a time when momentum typically accelerates.
This bullish prediction closely aligns with the view of Geoffrey Kendrick, the head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high of $120,000 by Q2 2025, driven by a strategic reallocation of U.S. assets.
Kendrick notes that U.S. Treasury futures premiums are high, correlating with BTC prices and intraday trading patterns indicating that investors have been seeking non-U.S. assets since President Donald Trump initiated the trade war on April 2.
The Bitcoin futures market suggests a 'long squeeze'
Bitcoin's funding rate has turned positive, signaling the dominance of long positions as traders bet on prices rising above $90,000.
From April 24 to April 25, Bitcoin's funding rate briefly turned negative, sparking discussions about the possibility of a short squeeze that could push prices to $97,000.
However, market momentum has shifted as the funding rate turns positive, which could lead to a long squeeze.
A long squeeze is a market event when prices drop suddenly, forcing long traders using excessive leverage to sell, amplifying the decline through mass liquidations.
You can see the BTC price here.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.