Bitcoin has recently shown a pattern of violent fluctuations. After breaking through $95,000 to reach a historical high on the morning of April 29, the market experienced a net outflow of $4.85 million within 24 hours due to a surge in large sell orders, causing the price to retreat to $94,835. This volatility reflects the market's complex sentiment towards Trump's tariff policy: on one hand, Arizona has passed a Bitcoin reserve bill, and sovereign wealth funds and institutions continue to increase their holdings, driving Bitcoin's rise by over 50% this year; on the other hand, the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, compounded by inflation concerns triggered by tariffs (the U.S. March core PCE reached 2.6%), which has suppressed the sustained upward momentum of risk assets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin encountered strong resistance around $95,000, with the RSI falling below 50, indicating significant short-term downward pressure. However, institutions remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, with Standard Chartered predicting it could hit $200,000 by the end of 2025. The current market exhibits characteristics of a 'policy good news versus macro risk game,' and investors need to be wary of high leverage risks (with $275 million liquidated in 24 hours), while also paying attention to the progress of state-level legislation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction. $BTC