Trump's tariff policy will have complex impacts on the cryptocurrency market and the global economy. From an economic perspective, high tariffs may exacerbate inflation by pushing up the prices of imported goods (for example, U.S. inflation expectations rose to 6.7% in April), forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates to curb prices, which in turn may drag down economic growth. At the same time, tariff revenue cannot replace income tax (a tax rate of 69.9% would be needed to cover a $2 trillion gap), and federal finances may fall into a vicious cycle of "tax increases—deficits—debt issuance," further undermining market confidence.

In terms of the cryptocurrency market, there may be short-term inflows due to inflation hedging demand and the volatility of traditional assets. For example, when Trump proposed a cryptocurrency reserve plan in March 2025, the price of Bitcoin briefly surpassed $93,000. However, in the long run, policy uncertainty (such as unclear tariff details) and regulatory risks (such as the SEC's scrutiny of cryptocurrencies) may suppress market performance. Additionally, traditional safe-haven assets like gold have seen significant inflows recently (with $8 billion net inflow into gold ETFs in April), diverting some demand away from cryptocurrencies.

Overall, it can be judged that the cryptocurrency market will exhibit a pattern of "increased short-term volatility and long-term pressure." If tariff policies lead to heightened recession risks, investors may turn to gold rather than high-volatility cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the outlook is bullish in the short term but cautiously bearish in the long term, needing close attention to the effects of policy implementation and the direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy. #特朗普税改