Yesterday (29th), the latest market analysis report (Bullish Momentum Starting To Form) was released, indicating that Bitcoin has risen over 10% in the past week, significantly outperforming traditional risk assets like the S&P 500.

The report emphasizes that Bitcoin has regained the critical price level of $94,000, which is not only an important support point for the current market but also the key foundation that supported Bitcoin's historic highs in January, demonstrating Bitcoin's strong market resilience.

Multiple indicators point to optimistic sentiment

The Bitfinex report points out that several indicators currently show that the market is developing positively, including: Bitcoin has now surpassed the cost basis level for short-term holders (approximately $92,900), which is an important on-chain turning point, typically marking the market's transition from a correction phase to a new bullish momentum; additionally, positive signals in market structure include the profit supply percentage indicator rebounding to 87.3%, reflecting improved market health and enhanced investor profitability.

Furthermore, the Fed has recently relaxed regulations on crypto assets, retracting previous regulatory requirements for the U.S. banking sector, which will promote innovation and simplify the process for banks to engage in cryptocurrency and dollar token activities. This move demonstrates a more supportive and adaptive regulatory attitude from the U.S. towards the digital asset industry, injecting a strong dose of confidence into the crypto market.

However, Bitfinex also reminds us that the current market has not yet entered a state of full exuberance, and the next few weeks will be crucial. Whether Bitcoin can maintain its upward momentum will determine if it can further challenge historical highs or face the risk of another pullback.

The negative effects of the tariff war are beginning to emerge

On the other hand, the report also analyzes the current economic situation in the United States, noting that the impact of high tariff policies on the economy is gradually becoming apparent. Specifically, it includes:

  • Firstly, although initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, there are signs of weakening confidence in the labor market. Wage satisfaction and the minimum acceptable wage expectations have significantly declined, indicating growing public concerns about long-term job security and wage growth.

  • In terms of the real economy, durable goods orders surged significantly in March due to a spike in demand for commercial aircraft, but core capital goods orders, an important indicator of business investment, have nearly stagnated, reflecting a cautious attitude from businesses amid tariff uncertainties. Companies have postponed major investments, raising market concerns about a slowdown in economic momentum later this year.

  • Additionally, the dollar has weakened due to declining market confidence in U.S. economic leadership, significant downward revisions in GDP forecasts, and strong competition from Europe. Meanwhile, low consumer sentiment and the possibility of Fed rate cuts may further accelerate the depreciation of the dollar. Finally, the repatriation of funds by Japanese investors and interventions by the Bank of Japan have added more variables to the dollar's trajectory.

In the short term, whether the U.S.-China trade war can ease? Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates? These will become important influencing factors in determining whether Bitcoin can demonstrate the narrative of digital gold.