Is $BTC starting to release news again? Let's analyze briefly. Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep long-term U.S. Treasury yields below 4.5%, but the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to reduce taxes to fulfill election promises, while casually waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, which will escalate the situation.

In short, short-term debts are maturing soon, and the Federal Reserve will either cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to solve the issue. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was due to the pandemic; although expanding the balance sheet addressed the problem, both bonds and stocks suffered. This time, the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S. Continuing to cut interest rates or expand the balance sheet may further exacerbate the soaring CPI. Let's see what happens.