Is #特朗普税改 starting to release news again? Let's analyze it briefly. Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep long-term U.S. Treasury yields below 4.5%, but the Fed Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill his election promises, just waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, and the situation continues to escalate.

It's nothing more than that short-term debt is about to mature, and the Federal Reserve either needs to cut rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020, and the Fed later also expanded its balance sheet to solve the problem. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time it was a pandemic, and although expanding the balance sheet solved the issue, both bonds and stocks were hit hard. This time the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S. Continuing to cut rates or expand the balance sheet may further aggravate the soaring CPI. Let's see what happens.