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Switzerland's Economy Faces Challenges, Swiss Franc Appreciation and Policy Dilemma
According to Jin Shi Data, Switzerland's economy faces multiple challenges. The appreciation of the Swiss Franc has hindered exports, inflation is sluggish, and there is a strong reliance on international trade. The United States has imposed high tariffs on Switzerland, affecting exports.
The Swiss National Bank has limited policy space, with interest rates already at 0.25%. If the economy deteriorates, it may need to lower rates to negative interest. Large-scale foreign exchange intervention may face sanctions from Trump, requiring caution.
Investment Bank Perspective: ING believes that rate cuts are the only option. Goldman Sachs predicts that the Swiss National Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points consecutively. Nomura Securities and Deutsche Bank expect that negative interest rates may be restarted. Société Générale believes that the threshold for restoring negative interest rates is high.
