#空投发现指南

Is the news starting again? Let's do a simple analysis: Trump is eager for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to keep long-term U.S. Treasury yields below 4.5%. However, the Federal Reserve Chairman completely ignores Trump. Trump is now continuing to cut taxes to fulfill election promises, while also waiting for the government to run out of money and shut down, making the situation escalate.

Essentially, short-term debt is maturing soon, and the Federal Reserve has to either cut rates or expand its balance sheet; otherwise, the government will shut down. It happened once in 2020 when the government shut down, and the Federal Reserve later expanded its balance sheet to solve the problem. However, this time the situation is different from last time. Last time, it was a pandemic; although expanding the balance sheet solved the problem, it led to a double hit on both bonds and stocks. This time, the situation is worse, compounded by the decoupling between China and the U.S., and continuing to cut rates or expand the balance sheet may further exacerbate soaring CPI. Let's see how it plays out.