Report on Bitcoin (BTC) as of April 28, 2025: Realistic forecasts for the short, medium, and long term.

Bitcoin (BTC) is considered the leading cryptocurrency globally, characterized by its decentralized nature and limited supply of 21 million coins, making it a unique asset in the digital asset market. This report aims to provide realistic price forecasts for Bitcoin in the short term (weeks to months), medium term (6 months to 1 year), and long term (several years), based on technical and fundamental analyses derived from reliable sources and current market trends.

1. Short-term (Weeks to 3 months)

Current situation (April 28, 2025):

• Current price: Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, with notable volatility after breaking the $100,000 barrier earlier this year.

• Technical analysis:

◦ The price is facing a strong distribution area between $87,000 and $89,000, indicating gradual selling by large investors (“whales”), which may temporarily limit upward momentum.

◦ Key support levels: $79,862, $75,000, and $74,441.

◦ Resistance levels: $88,753 and $90,000. A breakout above the resistance at $88,753 could push the price towards $90,000 or higher.

◦ Technical indicators: The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral between 30-70, indicating price stability without strong upward or downward momentum. However, the MACD shows a slight downward trend on the weekly timeframe.

Influencing factors:

• Market sentiment: The fear and greed index at level 19 reflects a cautious state among investors, which could lead to short-term volatility.

• Regulatory news: Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates impact demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin. Stability in interest rates enhances interest in Bitcoin.

• Whale activity: Transactions by large Bitcoin holders could cause significant volatility, especially if they sell large amounts.

Short-term outlook:

• Bullish scenario: If the price breaks $88,753 and holds above $87,000, it may target $90,000-$92,000 in the coming weeks, supported by increased investments in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

• Bearish scenario: Breaking the support level at $79,862 could push the price towards $74,000-$75,000, especially if selling pressure increases.

• Most likely scenario: Sideways trading within the range of $79,000-$89,000 with limited volatility, awaiting new catalysts such as positive regulatory news or institutional movements.

2. Medium-term (6 months to 1 year)

Technical and fundamental analysis:

• General trend: Bitcoin is in an upward cycle that began after the halving in April 2024, where the mining reward decreased to 3.125 Bitcoins per block, enhancing scarcity and supporting prices.

• Support and resistance levels:

◦ Support: $75,102 (key level on the H4 timeframe), with additional support at $70,000.

◦ Resistance: $99,550-$101,000, a critical area to regain upward momentum.

• Indicators: The 200-day moving average shows a strong upward trend since January 30, 2025, supporting medium-term optimism.

Influencing factors:

• Exchange-traded funds (ETFs): Approval by U.S. regulators of Bitcoin ETFs from institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity has boosted institutional demand.

• Regulatory legislation: Proposed legislation in the U.S. to provide regulatory clarity could support prices, especially after President Trump's executive order in March 2025 to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

• Institutional adoption: Increasing acceptance of Bitcoin by major companies as a means of payment or investment, such as announcements from French Monoprix stores earlier.

• Economic volatility: A decline in the dollar index (DXY) and increased demand for safe havens support Bitcoin as “digital gold.”

Medium-term outlook:

• Bullish scenario: By the end of 2025, the price may reach $105,000-$120,000, supported by significant investment inflows and halving effects.

• Bearish scenario: In the event of a major correction (similar to the crypto winter), the price could drop to $60,000-$70,000, especially if the market is affected by tightening monetary policies.

• Most likely scenario: The price is expected to range between $90,000 and $110,000 by December 2025, with a potential peak of the upward cycle at the end of the year, according to Wall Street experts' forecasts.

3. Long-term (3-10 years)

Fundamental analysis:

• Scarcity: As supply approaches the maximum limit (21 million coins), Bitcoin's scarcity will increase, supporting its value as a long-term investment asset.

• Global adoption: Continued acceptance of Bitcoin as a means of payment and store of value in countries like El Salvador, along with government interest in creating Bitcoin reserves, will lead to increased demand.

• Technological development: Updates to the Bitcoin network, such as the Lightning Network to improve scalability, will enhance the practical use of the currency.

• Risks: Strict government regulations, such as bans in some countries (as happened in China in 2018), could pose challenges. However, favorable legislation in the U.S. and Europe could offset these risks.

Long-term outlook:

• Until 2030:

◦ Optimistic forecasts suggest the price could range between $690,000 and $1.2 million, driven by increasing institutional adoption and shrinking new supply due to successive halvings.

◦ Stock-to-flow (S2F) model predicts a price exceeding $200,000 by 2025, with the potential to reach higher levels by 2030.

• Until 2040-2050:

◦ Bitcoin could reach million-dollar levels if it becomes part of the global financial system as a reserve of value, similar to gold.

◦ Conservative scenario: The price stabilizes between $300,000 and $500,000, with continued volatility due to market dynamics.

• Long-term risks: Technological developments in other cryptocurrencies or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) may reduce Bitcoin's dominance, but its position as the first cryptocurrency will remain a competitive advantage.

Conclusion

• Short term: Sideways trading between $79,000 and $89,000 with potential for an upward breakout to $90,000 or a correction to $74,000.

• Medium-term: Bullish forecasts to $90,000-$110,000 by the end of 2025, with risks of correction to $60,000-$70,000 in a bearish market.

• Long-term: Potential to reach $690,000-$1.2 million by 2030, with long-term forecasts reaching $1 million by 2040-2050 if global adoption continues.

Recommendation: Investors are advised to monitor the mentioned support and resistance levels, and focus on regulatory news and institutional movements. Given the volatility of the cryptocurrency market, diversification of investments and the use of risk management strategies are preferred.

Note: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and investors should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.

Sources:

• Technical and fundamental analyses from LiteFinance, Binance, TradingView, Investing.com, and Cryptomus.

• Posts on platform X reflect market sentiment and analysts' insights.