Below are the key points of Trump's 2025 tax reform plan:
- Tariff adjustments: On April 2, 2025, local time, Trump announced a "baseline tariff" of 10% on all countries, and personalized higher "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S. For instance, cumulative tariffs on China could reach 104%, 46% on Vietnam, and 49% on Cambodia, among others. Meanwhile, certain goods may be exempt, such as steel and aluminum products, automobiles, and items like copper and pharmaceuticals that are subject to specific tariffs.
- Income tax adjustment proposals: The plan aims to use tariff revenue to alleviate the tax burden on low- and middle-income families, potentially significantly reducing or even eliminating federal income tax. However, there have been no specific details released about the income tax adjustment plan, such as how tax rates will change or whether tax brackets will be adjusted.
From an economic perspective, the Tax Foundation estimates that the tax reform could increase the U.S. real GDP by over 9%, raise real wages by 8%, and create at least 2 million new permanent full-time jobs. However, a report from the American think tank TPC indicates that the long-term impact on U.S. economic growth is minimal and could even trigger higher inflation. The Center for American Progress estimates that the tax reform could reduce U.S. federal revenue by $2.4 to $2.5 trillion from 2017 to 2027, and by $3.4 trillion from 2027 to 2037. From an international perspective, U.S. tax reform could prompt a global race to cut taxes, impacting tax policies and economic development in other countries.