$BTC

Random Writing Bitcoin has recently been performing a high-wire act around $95,000, with both bulls and bears fiercely competing at this critical position. On-chain data reveals a harsh truth — over the past two weeks, there has been a net outflow of 42,000 BTC from exchanges, but the open interest in derivatives has surged by 60%. Such extreme divergence often signals the calm before the storm. The most bizarre part is that U.S. spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of funds for 18 consecutive days, yet the price stubbornly refuses to break through previous highs, as if an invisible hand is suppressing the market.

Miners are staging a doomsday carnival; after the halving, the total network has not decreased but rather increased in hash rate. Those old mining machines that should have been eliminated are surviving on an ultra-low electricity price of $0.03. However, a closer look at the blockchain explorer reveals that recently 50% of the blocks have been monopolized by three anonymous mining pools, a level of hash rate concentration comparable to the Mt. Gox era in 2014. The market is waiting for a trigger point — it could be BlackRock suddenly applying for a physical redemption mechanism, or perhaps the 140,000 BTC compensation from Mt. Gox starting to move.

(On-chain detectives have discovered that an ancient address, dormant for 11 years, has suddenly awakened, with a purchase cost of 1,000 BTC being only $3. Even more frightening is that the number of activations of such 'zombie coins' has surged by 400% year-on-year over the past month...)