When will BTC peak?

Latest model assessment

Current price: $94,000

Quantitative model risk score: 56.6%

Current stage: Initiating the second surge, attempting to break through the critical point and enter the speculative acceleration zone.

Historical pattern: In past cycles, the price has always experienced one or two failed breakthroughs (traps) before the final peak.

Valuation benchmark: The current stage is equivalent to November 2020 (when Bitcoin was at $13,000), after which the price skyrocketed from $13,000 to $61,000.

Current analysis: This time, due to participation from Trump, institutions, listed companies, celebrities, etc., and constrained by tightening monetary policy and concerns about economic recession, the pace of the increase may be relatively slower.

But the key point is: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has basically determined to enter a loosening phase.

Excluding the short-term volatility caused by concerns about economic recession, the macro environment constitutes a strong positive for Bitcoin.

Model conclusion: Through model and macro analysis, all conditions for Bitcoin to peak will converge before the end of this year: loose monetary policy + tariff impact fading + pro-economic growth policy combination (tax cuts/regulatory easing, etc.)