Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in April 2024, the price of $BTC has only increased by 43.4%, far below the increases of 7000%, 291%, and 541% seen after the first three halvings, marking the worst performance for Bitcoin after a halving 😰

Factors such as macroeconomic uncertainty, the trade policies of the Trump administration, outflows of ETF funds, and changes in market structure have all weakened the upward effect brought by the halving.

Moreover, as the Bitcoin market gradually matures, its price volatility is also decreasing. Currently, Bitcoin's 60-day volatility has dropped from 200% in 2012 to about 50%. What does this indicate? It suggests that Bitcoin may exhibit a more stable but limited upward trend in the future. Therefore, the current performance of altcoins is not surprising 😑