While Bitcoin's price hovers around $94,000, a curious contrast comes to light: financial institutions do not seem to share the market's lethargy. In just one week, $3 billion flowed into Bitcoin ETFs, despite the asset trading at an estimated 40% discount. Such a marked difference raises the question:
What do the big players know that the retail market is ignoring? Beneath the surface, a strategic game unfolds between perceived value and long-term vision.
Charles Edwards and the 'Hidden Value' Thesis of Bitcoin
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, presents a disruptive assessment: in reality, each bitcoin should be worth around $130,000. His reasoning is based on the energy cost of mining after the halving in April 2024, which places the production cost of one BTC at $77,000. For Edwards, this figure marks a 'technical floor' that the market tends to ignore. Still, the price remains anchored at $94,000. Just short-term noise? For some analysts, rather an opportunity for those who know to look beyond volatility.
Data from CryptoQuant reinforces this idea: more than 36,000 BTC left Coinbase and Binance towards the end of April, a classic signal of institutional accumulation. As the old adage goes: "When exchanges empty, private wallets fill up." Eric Balchunas, a Bloomberg analyst, highlights that in just a few days, Bitcoin ETFs captured $3 billion, suggesting a more thoughtful purchase than speculative.
However, history teaches caution. Similar exits were seen in 2021, just before China banned mining, resulting in disastrous consequences for the price. Joao Wedson from Alphractal warns: "A one-time exit does not change the market. We need to see consistent trends, like those that occurred after the FTX collapse." In this game, institutions move with calculated, not impulsive, steps.
The ETF Fractal: A Harbinger of Change for Bitcoin?
Bitcoin's price action today echoes the fourth quarter of 2024. Back then, a rapid 13% rise in just five days preceded a rally that took the asset to touch $100,000. Currently, indicators like the RSI show similar buying pressure patterns, but no fractal is a perfect replica. The $96,100 zone appears as the critical resistance that could define the next big move.
The influx of $3 billion into ETFs is not a minor detail. It marks a fundamental evolution: buying Bitcoin no longer involves dealing with technical risks or complex custodians. ETFs have opened a safe and direct access door for large investors, changing the rules of liquidity and price stability.
Optimists believe that a 7% to 10% push in the coming days would be enough to catapult Bitcoin above $100,000. However, the current environment is more competitive: in 2024, the market was less technical, but today large whales are watching and ready to sell at the slightest sign of weakness. Even with the $90,000 support holding firm, the feeling of a 40% undervaluation continues to fuel both greed and fear among investors.
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