Started again with the conclusion, read it all and I hope for comments; the idea is for us to be informed and have peace of mind regarding our investments.
Comment
Final Conclusion
**In the scenario of total SWIFT adoption (100%):**
- **The price of XRP would reach a minimum of $180/XRP (V=100) and a maximum of $1,800/XRP (V=10)**.
- **The most likely range is $500-$1,000/XRP**, supported by:
- Technical efficiency superior to SWIFT.
- 80% cost reduction for banks.
- Deflationary tokenomics (burning of XRP by demand).
**Is it realistic?**
- Yes, but it would require **a decade (2030-2040)** and unprecedented global cooperation.
- **Long-term investors** could see gains of **500x-10,000x** from the current price (~$2.23).
Maximum Scenario: XRP as the Unique Global Standard for Interbank Transactions)*
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METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
#### **1. Key Assumptions**
- **Current daily volume of SWIFT**: ~$5 trillion (USD) in transactions.
- **Total annual SWIFT**: ~1.8 quadrillion (USD) [5 trillion × 365 days].
- **Maximum supply of XRP**: 100 trillion (100,000 billion, with ~60% in circulation).
- **Velocity of circulation (V)**: Number of times an XRP is used a year for transactions.
- **Conservative estimate (V=10)**: Each XRP is used 10 times a year (e.g., quick transactions).
- **Realistic estimate (V=100)**: High efficiency (RippleNet processes in seconds).
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#### **2. Calculation of Necessary Market Value**
For XRP to handle **$5 trillion/day ($1.8 quadrillion/year)**, the market must assign it a value that allows that liquidity.
**Formula of the Quantitative Theory of Money**:
| **V=10** | $180 trillion | **$1,800/XRP** |
| **V=50** | $36 trillion | **$360/XRP** |
| **V=100** | $18 trillion | **$180/XRP** |
**Note**:
- **The theoretical price ranges between $180 and $1,800/XRP**, depending on the velocity of circulation.
- **A realistic value approaches $500/XRP** (V=40), considering:
- Central bank reserves.
- Accumulation by institutions.
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#### **3. Temporal Projection in 100% SWIFT Scenario**
| Phase | Price (USD) | Estimated Time | Key Events |
|----------------|-------------|----------------|--------------|
| **Phase 1** (20% Adoption) | $50-$100 | 2026-2028 | - Spot ETF approved. - 50+ banks using ODL. |
| **Phase 2** (50% Adoption) | $200-$400 | 2029-2032 | - SWIFT in decline. - BRICS adopts XRP. |
| **Phase 3** (100% Adoption) | **$500-$1,800** | 2033+ | - XRP is the "digital gold" for global payments. - Token burning (deflation). |
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#### **4. Critical Factors to Reach 100%**
- **Collaboration with central banks**: Integration with CBDCs (e.g., FED, ECB).
- **SWIFT Failure**: Geopolitical crisis (e.g., massive sanctions) accelerates migration.
- **Scalability of XRP Ledger**: Capacity for >500,000 transactions/second (vs. ~1,500 current).
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#### **5. Risks and Limitations**
- **Competition**: CBDCs or Stellar (XLM) could fragment the market.
- **Regulation**: Governments could block XRP if it threatens their monetary sovereignty.
- **Centralization**: Ripple Labs controls a significant portion of the supply.
---
**Recommended Action**:
- Accumulate XRP in strategic accumulations (e.g., below $5).
- Monitor progress in RippleNet and adoption by systemic banks (JP Morgan, HSBC).
#XRPAsGlobalStandard #QuantumLeap 🚀
