With the increasing positive regulatory pressures in the United States under the Trump administration, speculation is rising about the approval of the first ETF that inversely tracks the price of XRP (Exchange Traded Fund) in 2025. Recent data shows a significant improvement in approval chances, with acceptance probabilities reaching 77% according to 'Polymarket', supported by factors such as institutional interest and the resolution of the legal dispute between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Ripple, the developer of XRP.
Factors driving SEC approval:
1. The new regulatory environment: With the appointment of Paul Atkins – known for his support of cryptocurrencies – as the head of the commission, the SEC has begun to close or postpone cases against companies like Ripple, boosting market confidence.
2. Demand for derivative products: The Teucrium 2x Long Daily XRP ETF (XXRP) was launched in April 2025, marking the first leveraged fund linked to XRP in the United States, achieving a trading volume of $5 million on its first day, indicating strong institutional demand. This fund relies on financial contracts linked to European products, reducing arguments against physical reserve risks.
3. Trading volume and liquidity: Data from 'Kaiko' indicates that XRP has the highest market depth among altcoins, with its share of trading volume in the U.S. reaching 20%, the highest level since 2021.
Financial forecasts and challenges:
- JPMorgan predicts that XRP ETF funds will attract investments worth $8 billion during the first year of their launch, especially as institutions shift towards digital assets with a clear legal framework.
- However, risks still remain, such as the potential delay in SEC decisions, with the deadline for reviewing the 'Grayscale' application set to end by October 2025.
Competition with Solana and other currencies:
Although Solana was thought to be the main competitor, XRP has recently surpassed it in liquidity and market share. Additionally, the launch of futures contracts for XRP by ProShares in April 2025 may pave the way for the approval of actual price tracking (Spot ETFs), similar to what happened with Bitcoin and Ethereum before.
Conclusion:
As the financial infrastructure for XRP continues to be strengthened through projects like XenDex (an AI-powered decentralized trading platform), and the increasing demand for institutional investment tools, the prospects look promising for XRP to become the third cryptocurrency to obtain an ETF in the United States, which could drive its value towards testing new record levels.
