Today, April 27, 2025, I will analyze the recent accumulation by various institutions from several different dimensions. Historically, every time these institutions accumulate, BTC is pushed to a new height. Will this round push Bitcoin close to $200,000 to $250,000? Let's take a look at the data:
Current BTC market analysis and interpretation.
The increase in BTC on April 22 resulted in nearly $300 million in short positions being liquidated, the largest single-day short liquidation since the bull market began. However, BTC's price actually rose from $87,000 to $94,000, and the increase was not as great as we imagined, indicating a clear bearish sentiment in the market, with everyone looking to go short.
If BTC continues to rise without a correction, it will be difficult to break through $100,000 in the short term. This wave of increase clearly lacks large capital support, and there are no significant positive factors in the market, making it hard to sustain.
In the best-case scenario, if BTC actively adjusts and consolidates in the next week or two, fully exchanging and locking up positions, it is expected to initiate a new bullish trend. We will see if it can break through $150,000 during the first wave of excitement in June.
The largest institution in the cryptocurrency space, BlackRock's holdings.
BlackRock has purchased $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin this week, with its Bitcoin ETF holdings surpassing 586,000 BTC, ranking first among institutions. Together with MicroStrategy, their combined holdings have exceeded 1.1 million BTC.
Moreover, MicroStrategy seems to have been continuously offloading in the past three months, but it only takes a simple two days to buy back, reaching last year's peak holdings. This is the institution: Don't be frightened away by their small offloading actions!
MicroStrategy's holding costs and increased holdings:
MicroStrategy's total BTC holdings: 538,200 BTC, average cost: $67,766.
Recent two large purchases of BTC:
In December 2024, $3 billion worth of BTC was purchased at an average price of $98,000.
In March 2025, over $2.6 billion worth of BTC was purchased at an average price of $85,000.
Overall, these two large purchases have gradually elevated MicroStrategy's average cost price, which was previously at $63,000 and is now raised to nearly $68,000. However, after each purchase, the BTC price tends to rise by about 20% later.
MicroStrategy and BlackRock have become the two largest institutions holding Bitcoin today.
BTC on-chain whale addresses:
It is evident that recently, as the BTC price broke through $90,000, the whales also began to act. The whales that built their positions around $83,000 have been gradually increasing their holdings during this period. Only a few people started to offload part of their short-term profits when BTC reached $94,000. Historical data from the past seven years shows that every time whales begin to gradually increase their holdings, BTC prices tend to initiate a very good market trend.
Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC are increasing their accumulation efforts.
Are you still worried that the tariff war will lead to repeated inflation?
Are you still anxious that the expansion of the fiscal deficit will trigger a debt default?
Do you still think that the Federal Reserve's sustained high-interest rates will trigger an economic recession?
There are many macro uncertainties, but the only certainty is that BTC is the best asset for hedging against inflation in the future. Just look at what the wealthy whales are doing. Wouldn't rich people be foolish?
The BTC balance on centralized exchanges has been continuously declining. Where has it all gone?
Since July 2024, the BTC balance within exchanges has been continuously declining, from an initial 3.1 million to now 2.6 million, with a net outflow of 500,000 BTC in eight months. I believe this indicates that the demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven is gradually increasing, and its value is being further amplified. BTC is also becoming recognized as a mainstream financial asset.
At the peak of the last bull market, the BTC balance on major exchanges was continuously rising.
However, currently, the BTC volume on major centralized exchanges is gradually decreasing, so the bull market has not yet arrived and is brewing a major opportunity, inciting FOMO emotions in everyone.
After the approval of the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs, global capital has gained a new understanding and consensus regarding BTC, resulting in a continuous decline in balances. Binance and Coinbase, holding over 600,000 BTC, confirm their strength as top-tier global players.
However, at least in the first two trend peaks of this cycle, there was no similar situation as in the previous cycle where large amounts of BTC flowed into exchanges for cashing out. Instead, more BTC was moved to wallets for storage. If this trend continues, perhaps one day the BTC on exchanges will really be bought out.
Bitcoin rainbow chart analysis for 2025 BTC price.
Relatively cheap: $208,653.
Normal holding: $282,681.
Considering dollar-cost averaging: $154,558.
The Bitcoin rainbow chart uses a logarithmic growth curve to predict the potential future price direction of Bitcoin. This price is also based on previous prices for analytical predictions. Bitcoin has been following this logic over nearly 20 years from 2008 to 2025, and it is currently recognized as a reference for price trend predictions in the cryptocurrency community.
Therefore, I believe that this round of BTC prices reaching the range of $200,000 to $250,000 will be quite normal, and it is not ruled out that it could break through $300,000 with Trump's backing.
Lastly: Many views in this article represent my personal understanding and judgment of the market and do not constitute investment advice for you.
