Key takeaways:
Data suggests that Bitcoin is currently trading at a 40% discount.
More than 36,000 Bitcoins were withdrawn from Coinbase and Binance on April 25.
The Bitcoin fractal pattern from Q4 2024 could drive prices above $100,000 in April.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at a 40% discount to its intrinsic value, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
In a recent post on X, Edwards highlighted that since the halving in April 2024, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, the energy value of Bitcoin—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—is at $130,000.
Recent data from CryptoQuant indicated that more than 8,756 BTC ($830 million) were withdrawn from Coinbase on April 24. Negative net flows from Coinbase may indicate institutional purchases, or ETF-related purchases reflecting underlying demand.
This development aligns with the spot Bitcoin ETF inflows witnessed this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions participated in a $3 billion 'bender' of Bitcoin in recent days.
Binance also witnessed outflows of 27,750 BTC on April 25. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted that 'this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the history of the exchange.' While large outflows and positive price action suggest favorable bullish winds, Wedson said this does not automatically mean a continuation of the rally. The analyst stated,
"In 2021, large outflows did not prevent the drop caused by China's cryptocurrency ban (April-May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery."
Related: Bitcoin ETFs in a $3B 'bender', marking the first full week of inflows in 5 weeks
Could this Bitcoin fractal take BTC above $100K in April?
Bitcoin's weekly performance marks its highest return in 2025 and its most significant increase since November 2024. In addition to similar returns, the price of BTC also reflects identical price action.
As illustrated in the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is consolidating in a higher range after its breakout, mirroring its behavior from Q4 2024. (surrounded). After a 13% increase between November 5 and 9, BTC recorded another 15% increase during November 10 and 11. The breakout also occurred over the weekend.
Similarly, BTC prices rose 11% between April 21 and 25. With the relative strength index (RSI) also exhibiting similar buying pressure, a jump of 7-10% in the coming days could take BTC above $100,000.
While fractal patterns may repeat, they are not perfectly reliable. Unlike Q4 when Bitcoin entered price discovery and rose without resistance, the current upper resistance level at $96,100 may prevent a breakout.
Related: Bitcoin reaches 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of recovery to $100K
