Preface
In late April, the crypto market experienced a seemingly strong counterattack, with both BTC and ETH breaking through key structural pressure zones, superficially restoring bullish confidence. However, a deeper look at on-chain data and derivative structures reveals that this rebound is hiding different rhythms and structural risks compared to the past. This article will explore the causes of this rally and potential mid-term risk structures from multiple aspects, including MVRV STH, Open Interest, and capital rotation rhythms.
Bitcoin
BTC: Realized Price STH & MVRV STH
MVRV STH has oscillated multiple times between 0.9 and 1.0 without showing a strong breakthrough. This indicates that short-term investors are still in a breakeven state, and market sentiment is neutral to conservative, contrasting with prices gradually approaching historical highs. Compared to past bull market peaks, there is currently a lack of extreme optimism or strong profit effects, which means that although prices are rising, the momentum is not concentrated, indicating that this market cycle is structurally milder and broader, but also more susceptible to external variables. If this structure cannot effectively break away from the range around 1.0, it may mean that future movements will mainly focus on oscillation and rotation rather than a one-sided trend.
Note: The realized price for short-term holders of Bitcoin (Realized Price for STH) and the MVRV STH ratio (Market Value to Realized Value for Short-Term Holders) are used to observe the profit and loss status of short-term investors and the degree of market overheating. An MVRV value of 1 represents breakeven, below 1 indicates a loss, and above 1 indicates a profit state. Historically, whenever MVRV STH exceeds 1.4 or 1.6, the market often faces corrective pressure; and below 0.85, it is often a relative low point for medium to long-term positioning. The blue line represents the average price of Bitcoin, while the green line represents the MVRV STH index.
Bitcoin: Open Interest – All Exchanges
The open interest for BTC has significantly increased, soaring alongside prices to historical high levels, indicating a large number of leveraged positions in the market, with capital and prices highly correlated. However, entering the first quarter of 2025, both price and OI have sharply decreased, indicating that a large number of leveraged positions have been liquidated or exited, resulting in a significant de-leveraging phenomenon, corresponding to the MVRV STH being in a long-term low temperature structure near 1, indicating that short-term capital has quickly turned to wait-and-see or stop-loss after experiencing violent increases at the end of last year.
As of this week, Open Interest has once again seen a significant increase, rising from a low of about 18B at the beginning of the year to the latest 33.4B, in line with the BTC price rising back to $93,500. This rapid replenishment of leverage indicates a strong market willingness to recover from the previous decline. However, compared to the current MVRV STH hovering around the breakeven zone, it suggests that this rebound is more driven by short-term capital rather than a comprehensive recovery by investors. In the absence of an overall profit structure and spot support, the simultaneous rise in price and OI may struggle to create long-term momentum, potentially leading to renewed de-leveraging pressure. This resonates with the structural pressure formed by the previous analysis indicating that MVRV STH struggles to break through the 1.2 level.
MicroStrategy buys BTC
On April 14, 2025, Michael Saylor announced on X (Twitter) that MicroStrategy purchased 3,418 BTC at an average price of 82,618.
So far, MicroStrategy has a total of 531,644 BTC (average price 67,556).
On-chain operation records: Related links
BTC Market Analysis
Currently, BTC's market share has broken through, and there is a high probability of triggering a strong period for BTC. Altcoins may weaken. The author believes that multi-strategy entry points can focus on BTC-related cryptocurrencies, such as STX, CORE, etc.
After oscillating in a range, BTC formed a small double bottom and began to rise. After standing back in the range, it broke through the descending trend line, showing signs of an upward trend. The author will focus on observing two key areas within the range: one is the upper range Fibonacci levels 0.786–0.886 (91,600–93,200), and the other is the lower area that may form 3 Taps, coinciding with the rising position (79,200~76,500). Both of these gray boxes are key price points to watch.
As for BTC's recent price performance, it has shown a stronger upward trend, completely breaking the previous descending trend structure (LH) and the daily level pressure area depicted above. This is a very positive signal for bullish holders.
Currently, the most basic judgment method for BTC is through the 123 rule. The recent rise breaking through 88,796 can be viewed as the '1' in the 123 rule. As for the '2' in the 123 rule, special attention should be paid to whether the market retraces to support below 88,769. Whether there is a continuation of upward momentum thereafter will depend on the breakthrough performance of the high point created by '1' in the 123 rule. Overall, the outlook remains optimistic.
Ethereum
The ETH price has fallen back to $1,790, hitting a new low in nearly a year and a half, while the open interest has also halved to about 12.1B. Despite a short-term rebound in price and OI after mid-April, the overall trend indicates that this round of ETH leverage cycle has entered the phase of de-leveraging, and the market is still in a recovery stage, lacking a stable leverage bottom structure. Unlike BTC, ETH has shown a larger gap between the price and OI highs in recent months, indicating that the market's leverage operations for ETH are more volatile and emotionally driven, lacking continuous support for capital.
Galaxy Digital transferred ETH to Coinbase and Binance.
From April 13 to April 20, 2025, Galaxy Digital (Market Maker) accumulated and transferred 60,281 ETH to Coinbase and Binance exchanges.
On-chain operation records: Related links
ETH Market Analysis
The current exchange rate of ETH/BTC continues to decline but has not yet reached around 0.01642 for a support test. There is a chance it will reach the target price in the next two weeks; we need to watch for changes.
ETH has recently shown a significant strengthening trend, quickly rebounding from below $1,550, forming an upward continuation structure (descending wedge) during consolidation, and has fully executed the 123 rule, not only breaking through the upper edge of the consolidation zone but also decisively breaking through the previous lost zone (1,700~1,750), currently nearing the key level of $1,800.
From a short-term rhythm perspective, the price is now very close to the pressure area marked in the chart (1,850), which is a small pressure zone from previous consolidation. If it can effectively break through, it is expected to open up a larger rebound wave.
Altcoin
CORE
Core is one of the cryptocurrencies of BTC L2. Due to the recent strength of BTC, related cryptocurrencies have been driven up. Currently, it has formed a potential head-and-shoulders bottom in the support area and completed a pullback, with the opportunity to advance to higher prices.
Conclusion
Currently, BTC has technically broken through the descending trend structure and entered an upward advancing rhythm with the 123 rule, but on-chain indicators like MVRV STH have not escaped the breakeven boundary, indicating that profit potential is weak and sentiment is limited. ETH, while showing short-term strength, has not yet rebuilt its overall leverage structure, and the rebound elasticity is notably weak. This round of rebound seems more like a technical repair rather than a structural restart. The current market's main theme still leans towards oscillation and rotation, and more capital accumulation and confidence reinforcement is needed before a true trend can emerge.
This report is for informational sharing only and does not constitute any form of investment advice or decision-making basis. The data, analysis, and opinions cited in this document are based on the author's research and public sources and may be subject to uncertainty or change at any time. Readers should exercise caution in making investment decisions based on their own circumstances and risk tolerance. For further guidance, professional advice is recommended.