Recently, the overall market trend has been quite good. The Floki, Cake, and Lever tokens that were stealthily bought a few days ago have all seen considerable gains. However, I found that when recommending coins in the group, some friends raised a soul-searching question: 'Do these coins really have value?' This question precisely reveals the most classic cognitive bias regarding investments in the crypto world—today, let's deconstruct this 'value myth.'
Today, let's analyze the logic of 'value' regarding this issue!
First of all, what is value? The definition of value is a dilemma.
When we discuss token value, we usually refer to two dimensions.
Technical value: the innovation of underlying technology (like ETH's smart contracts and SOL's high throughput).
Economic value: the sustainability of the token's economic model (like BTC's scarcity and XRP's cross-border settlement scenarios).
But the reality is that among the top 20 market cap tokens, over 60% of them (data source: CoinMarketCap) have actual applications that fall short of the 30% promised in their whitepapers.
Regarding the red font above, you must pay attention to it; this is the top 20 ranking. As for the many so-called 'value coins' behind it, combine them with the price and see how they have plummeted. Then you'll understand.
This leads to a key question: do value and returns really conflict?
My answer is: not completely conflicting, but you need to distinguish the investment logic.
Value Investment VS Trend Speculation
Value investing is simple: invest in valuable coins. However, in my view, currently, there are only three valuable coins.
BTC: Suitable for long-term allocation. Looking at the historical trends of Bitcoin, it perfectly aligns with the two excellent titles of 'digital gold' and 'safe-haven asset.' Since the approval of the BTC ETF, the current funding strength has completely upgraded from before. Many have invested millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions in Bitcoin, but have you heard of altcoins? This is the face value; this is the leader in the crypto world, and its position is unquestionable and unshakable!!!
BTC has never let anyone down.
ETH: The king of smart contracts, the absolute core of the crypto world! Looking at Ethereum's history, it is synonymous with 'decentralized ecology.' DeFi, NFT, Web3—none of them rely on ETH's powerful public chain? Since the merge upgrade to PoS, energy efficiency has skyrocketed. The staking craze has swept the globe, and the fund carrying capacity has directly taken off! Institutional funds easily invest hundreds of millions, and retail investors can also profit by staking; ETH's leading position is as solid as a rock! No matter how flashy altcoins are, can they have this kind of ecological foundation? This is ETH, the super engine of the crypto world!!!
If you talk about the trend since the second half of last year, it has indeed not been very prosperous. But if you are truly investing in value, then the price of ETH at 1800 is not high at all.
BNB: The second school of the universe (the first being our police station). The Binance platform token, from the soul token of the Binance exchange to the core pillar of BNB Chain, BNB proves with strength that it is not just a 'platform token' but an ecological king! Transaction fee discounts, DeFi mining, NFT minting; the use cases of BNB are explosively high! During a bull market, a wave of funds flows in, with transaction volumes easily reaching tens of millions of dollars. Retail investors trade coins, and institutions hoard coins; who doesn't love this stable cash flow machine? BNB's status is something altcoins can only look up to; this is the hardcore ace of the crypto world, firmly seated on the throne!!!
If you buy something else and it doubles, then you've made a profit of 100%. But BNB is different; just the Binance Launchpool has made token holders extremely happy.
So if you're torn about whether a token has value or a future, just buy these three; their recognition is well-known.
The core of trend speculation is to follow the market, closely track the flow of funds, and seize short-term profit opportunities. Isn't this the essence of what we are doing with short-term fluctuations? Wherever the market hotspot is, that’s where we go!
Meme coins, DeFi tokens, GemeFi, and low market cap coins are coming in waves. Short-term players are making a fortune! These coins may not have the 'value' of BTC or ETH, but their short-term returns are explosive; who wouldn't love that?
How to find it?
Keep a close eye on market sentiment: project official Twitter, WeChat groups, and Discord communities are hot indicators. Where the shouting is loud, there are opportunities!
Fast in and out, trend speculation doesn't linger in battle; consider taking profits when there’s a 30%-50% increase. Recently, some coins have surged 50% in one day and then another 80% the next day, leading many people to chase highs and end up stuck at the top. Always remember, do not blindly chase highs; opportunities are always present. We must cherish our principal; this market is never lacking in opportunities.
The tokens we've entered recently have all performed quite well: Floki, Cake, Lever.
Recently, I have also recommended several coins: SLERF, OL, USTC, QUICK. Currently, these tokens are good to enter, and the entry points are quite good. The overall market trend is still relatively positive. Once BTC stabilizes at 95,000 and breaks through the 100,000 mark, altcoins will also undergo a sector rotation.
Therefore, I don't think value investing and trend speculation conflict; as long as you don't get tangled up, it won't affect you. In fact, smart friends can do both; you can check out my homepage for the article I wrote on Monday: (Learning chapter: Position management to sneak and save yourself).
Conclusion
Reality is constantly changing; those who cannot adapt to the times will eventually be eliminated, especially considering that one day in the human world is equivalent to one year in the crypto world!
Here's a saying for everyone: Only innovators enter, only innovators are strong, only innovators win!!!
If you have been struggling in the crypto world for so many years and are still being rubbed to the ground, suffering injuries all over, it shows that you haven't made any progress.
The lone wolf moves quickly, but the crowd goes far. Brother Song will guide you through the winds of the crypto market, riding the gusts.
Break your fixed thinking, change your retail-style trading habits, and achieve your future.
