Below is a strategy framework for long positions in cryptocurrency contracts, combining the three major indicators of trend analysis: EMA, MACD, and RSI, divided into four parts: trend judgment, entry signals, exit signals, and risk management.
I. Trend judgment (EMA as core)
1. EMA period selection
- Dual EMA combination: Recommended EMA7 (short-term) + EMA30 (mid-term), suitable for the high volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies.
- Multi-EMA combination (advanced): Overlay EMA50/EMA100 (long-term) to determine macro trend direction.
2. Trend direction determination
- Bullish trend: Price stabilizes above EMA7, and EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA50 (if applicable).
- Trend strength: The greater the angle of the EMA slope upwards, the stronger the trend momentum.
- Key support: When pulling back, if the price touches EMA30/EMA50 without breaking, it is considered a trend continuation signal.
II. Entry signals (MACD+RSI auxiliary verification)
1. MACD confirms momentum
- Golden cross signal: MACD line (DIF) crosses above the signal line (DEA), and the histogram turns from negative to positive.
- Zero line boundary: MACD golden cross above the zero line, bullish signal is more reliable; golden cross below zero line should be approached with caution (may be a rebound).
- Divergence warning: Price makes a new high but MACD does not synchronize with a new high, indicating potential reversal risk.
2. RSI filters overbought/oversold
- Oversold rebound: RSI rises from below 30 to above 50, combined with EMA trend to go long (requires MACD golden cross to synchronize).
- Trend continuation: RSI oscillates in the 40-60 range and then breaks upwards, reflecting trend continuation momentum.
- Avoid overbought traps: If RSI > 70 and EMA has not broken, hold positions but avoid chasing highs.
3. Comprehensive entry conditions
Ideal long position opening scenarios:
- Price is above EMA7, EMA is in a bullish arrangement;
- MACD golden cross and histogram expansion;
- RSI rebounds from below 50 or gently rises (avoid overbought area).
III. Exit signals (dynamic take profit and stop-loss)
1. Trend reversal signals
- EMA breakout: Price falls below EMA7 (short-term take profit) or EMA30 (trend termination).
- MACD death cross: DIF crosses below DEA, especially accompanied by a reduction in histogram volume turning negative.
- RSI top divergence: Price makes a new high but RSI declines, indicating bullish exhaustion.
2. Partial take profit strategy
- First target: Liquidate 1/3 at EMA7 breakout to lock in profits;
- Second target: Liquidate 1/2 at EMA30 breakout to guard against trend reversal;
- Remaining position: Combine MACD death cross or RSI overbought (>80) to liquidate positions.
3. Mandatory stop-loss rules
- Fixed stop-loss: 2-3% below the entry price (adjust based on contract leverage);
- Dynamic stop-loss: Move up with EMA7, raising stop-loss level to 1% below EMA7.
IV. Risk management (core points for cryptocurrency)
1. Leverage control:
- Early trend (EMA not confirmed) ≤5x leverage;
- Trend acceleration (steep EMA slope + MACD expansion) can moderately increase to 10x but requires simultaneous adjustment of stop-loss.
2. Volatility adaptation:
- High volatility period (e.g., before and after major events) shorten EMA periods (EMA5+EMA20), reducing holding time.
- Low volatility period (sideways movement) pause trading, avoiding frequent false signals from MACD/RSI.
3. Cross-cycle verification:
- Daily EMA determines direction, 4-hour chart finds entry points, 15-minute chart fine-tunes stop-loss.
V. Case simulation (BTC/USDT contract)
1. Trend initiation:
- Daily EMA7 crosses above EMA30, MACD golden cross above zero line, RSI rises from 45 to 55.
- Action: Open long position (5x leverage) when the price on the 4-hour chart tests EMA30 without breaking.
2. Trend continuation:
- Price moves up along EMA7, MACD histogram continues to expand, RSI oscillates between 60-70.
- Action: Hold and move the stop-loss up to below EMA7.
3. Trend termination:
- Price falls below EMA7, MACD death cross, RSI top divergence.
- Action: Close 80% of positions, move stop-loss on remaining position up to EMA30.
VI. Strategy optimization direction
1. Parameter adjustment: Adjust EMA periods based on the volatility of the cryptocurrency (e.g., BTC vs. altcoins) (altcoins can use shorter periods).
2. Volume-price coordination: Add volume expansion signals (e.g., volume spikes during breakouts) to improve win rates.
3. Black swan protection: Reserve 10% margin in contracts to deal with spike scenarios, avoiding liquidation.
Note: This strategy needs to be backtested historically before going live (recommended to use TradingView), and parameters should be adjusted based on personal risk preferences. The cryptocurrency market is greatly affected by news, and fundamental verification (such as Federal Reserve policies, on-chain data) is required. Below is a strategy framework for long positions in cryptocurrency contracts, combining the three major indicators of trend analysis: EMA, MACD, and RSI, divided into four parts: trend judgment, entry signals, exit signals, and risk management.
I. Trend judgment (EMA as core)
1. EMA period selection
- Dual EMA combination: Recommended EMA7 (short-term) + EMA30 (mid-term), suitable for the high volatility characteristics of cryptocurrencies.
- Multi-EMA combination (advanced): Overlay EMA50/EMA100 (long-term) to determine macro trend direction.
2. Trend direction determination
- Bullish trend: Price stabilizes above EMA7, and EMA7 > EMA30 > EMA50 (if applicable).