An alt season is a period when altcoins (cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin) demonstrate higher returns than BTC. Let's analyze key historical periods and forecasts for 2025.
1. Historical alt seasons
2017–2018: The first global alt season
- Duration: 310 days (March 2017 — January 2018).
- Bitcoin dominance: Dropped from 86.3% to 36.69%, the market capitalization of altcoins reached $470 billion.
- Reasons: The ICO boom (initial coin offerings), growth of Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin.
- Examples of growth:
- Ethereum (ETH): $8 → $1,400 (+17,400%).
- Ripple (XRP): $0.006 → $3 (+49,900%).
2020–2021: The second global alt season
- Duration: 309 days (January 2021 — November 2021).
- Bitcoin dominance: Decreased from 70% to 38%, market capitalization of altcoins — $1.5 trillion.
- Reasons: COVID-19 pandemic, rise of DeFi and NFTs, popularity of meme coins.
- Examples of growth:
- Solana (SOL): $20 → $260 (+1,200%).
- Binance Coin (BNB): $15 → $690 (+4,500%).
Mini alt season in the fall of 2021
- Duration: ~3 months (August — November 2021).
- Examples of growth:
- Avalanche (AVAX): $10 → $140 (+1,300%).
- Shiba Inu (SHIB): Growth of 1,000% in a month.
2. Current situation (2024–2025)
- Bitcoin dominance: As of April 2025 — ~61%, which is above the threshold to start an alt season (usually requires <50%).
- Alt Season Index: In March 2025 — 14 points (low activity level).
- Trends: Growth of meme coins (TRUMP, BERA) and niche projects (RWA, AI), but the overall altcoin market is sluggish.
3. Forecasts for 2025
- Expected start: According to cycle analysis, the alt season may begin in December 2024 and last until October 2025.
- Growth factors:
- Bitcoin halving (April 2024) — historically launched alt seasons 8–9 months later.
- Easing of regulatory pressure and growth of institutional interest in altcoins.
- Price forecasts:
- Bitcoin: up to $200,000 (Standard Chartered).
- Ethereum: up to $10,000.
- Growth leaders: Solana, Avalanche, meme coins.
4. Key indicators of the alt season
1. Bitcoin dominance index: A drop below 50% is a signal to start.
2. Alt Season Index (CoinMarketCap): Value above 75% (75 out of 100).
3. Trading volumes of altcoins: A sharp increase indicates activity.
4. ETH/BTC pair: Strengthening of Ethereum often precedes an alt season.
5. Risks and limitations
- Competition: Hundreds of thousands of new tokens are released monthly, reducing liquidity.
- Regulatory barriers: Pressure from the SEC and other agencies slows growth.
- Institutional focus: Capital is concentrated on Bitcoin and Ethereum through ETFs, which limits inflow into altcoins.
Summary
Historically, alt seasons have brought investors extraordinary returns, but their onset depends on macroeconomics, regulatory environment, and Bitcoin cycles. In 2025, the chances of a new alt season are high, but its intensity may give way to previous periods due to structural market changes. To navigate successfully, monitor indicators and diversify your portfolio.
You can support and start trading here>$BTC