In-Depth Analysis of Bearish Logic in the 94,000-95,000 Range

Recently, many friends have questioned my bearish view in the 94,000-95,000 range. Here, I will systematically outline my analysis logic, combining market technical analysis and fundamental factors.

1. Technical Aspect: Risk Signals Behind False Breakouts

The current market exhibits typical characteristics of "breakouts without acceleration." Although prices have briefly surpassed key levels, there is a lack of volume support and sustained upward momentum. This kind of movement often provides on-site capital with a window for high-level selling, forming a technical divergence signal. Historical data shows that similar patterns have triggered periodic pullbacks in past trends.

2. Time Window: Month-End Effect and Overbought Warning

As we approach month-end, previously accumulated bullish factors are gradually being digested. According to quantitative indicator monitoring, market overbought signals are expected to reach extremes by Sunday night. Considering seasonal patterns and capital flow characteristics, it is highly likely that we will enter a pullback cycle next week, with a possibility of directly initiating a downward trend.

3. Trading Strategy: Controlling the Rhythm of Swing Trading

Based on the above judgments, I adhere to the "short first, long later" trading strategy:

1. Short-Term Bearish Positioning: Establish short positions in the 94,000-95,000 range, aiming for a pullback wave from late April to early May.

2. Mid-Term Bullish Opportunity: If a waterfall decline occurs, plan to set long positions in the critical support range of 87,000-88,000. Combine subsequent favorable policies and shifts in market sentiment to seize trend reversal opportunities; specific upward targets will be dynamically adjusted based on real-time market conditions.

It is important to emphasize that the above analysis is merely a personal trading thought sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market is ever-changing, and any trading decisions should be based on thorough risk assessment. Thank you all for your attention and communication, let us maintain rational judgment and explore investment opportunities together.