Cryptocurrency contract long position investment strategy (EMA as core, MACD/RSI as assistance)
One, Core logic
The trend is king, follow the trend: Determine the trend direction through EMA, validate momentum strength with MACD, filter overbought and oversold signals with RSI, and combine the three to improve long position win rate.
Two, Indicator details and strategy steps
1. EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
- Parameter selection:
- Short-term EMA: 7 days (capture short-term trend changes)
- Long-term EMA: 30 days (confirm mid-term trend)
(Note: Parameters can be adjusted based on trading cycle, for intraday trading EMA5/EMA15 can be used)
- Trend judgment:
- Bullish signal:
- Price stabilizes above the short-term EMA, and short-term EMA > long-term EMA (golden cross pattern);
- Dual EMA diverging upwards, price rising along the slope of EMA.
- Bearish warning:
- Price breaks below short-term EMA or long-term EMA;
- Short-term EMA crosses below long-term EMA (death cross pattern).
2. MACD (momentum validation)
- Parameter optimization: Default (12,26,9) suitable for medium and short-term trends.
- Key signals:
- Long position entry:
- MACD histogram line turns from negative to positive (green bars expand), and DIF crosses above DEA (golden cross);
- MACD line (DIF) is above the zero axis, indicating bullish dominance.
- Divergence warning:
- Price reaches a new high, MACD does not synchronize with a new high → Beware of pullback risk.
3. RSI (overbought/oversold filter)
- Parameter setting: 14 periods (balance sensitivity and noise).
- Usage rules:
- RSI characteristics in a trend:
- In an uptrend, RSI may remain in the 50~80 range for a long time, overbought (>70) does not mean a reversal;
- If RSI pulls back to around 50 and rebounds, it is considered a trend continuation signal.
- Divergence signal:
- Price reaches a new high, RSI does not reach a new high → Potential top signal, should be judged in conjunction with EMA trend.
Three, Long position strategy process
1. Trend confirmation (EMA dominant):
- Price > EMA7 > EMA30, and EMA double lines diverge upwards → Confirm bullish trend.
- If EMA7 and EMA30 stick together, wait for a breakout confirmation.
2. Momentum validation (MACD assistance):
- MACD golden cross and histogram line continues to expand → Trend acceleration signal;
- MACD is above the zero axis → Bullish momentum is strong.
3. Entry timing (RSI filter):
- Ideal situation: RSI pulls back to around 50 and rebounds (trend continuation);
- Avoid chasing highs: Be cautious when RSI > 70, unless EMA/MACD is strongly bullish.
4. Stop loss and take profit:
- Stop loss level: 2%~3% below EMA30 (dynamic tracking) or previous low support;
- Take profit strategy:
- Ladder take profit: Close 1/2 when EMA7 breaks, close all when EMA30 breaks;
- Reduce position when MACD death cross or RSI top divergence occurs.
Four, Practical case (BTC/USDT 4H cycle)
1. Trend initiation:
EMA7 crosses above EMA30, price stabilizes above both EMAs;
MACD golden cross and histogram line turns red, RSI rebounds from 50.
→ Open long position, set stop loss below EMA30.
2. Trend continuation:
Price rises along EMA7, MACD histogram line continues to expand;
RSI touches 70 multiple times and then falls back to 60, without showing top divergence.
→ Hold position, move stop loss to below the latest EMA7.
3. Exit signal:
Price breaks below EMA7, MACD histogram line shortens;
RSI top divergence: price reaches a new high, RSI does not reach a new high.
→ Close position, lock in profits.
Five, Risk control
Leverage management: no more than 5x (be conservative in highly volatile markets);
Position allocation: single loss not exceeding 2% of total funds;
Black swan response: Avoid heavy positions before major events (such as Federal Reserve meetings).
VI. Precautions
Cycle adaptation: EMA parameters must match the trading cycle (daily/4H/1H);
Market sentiment: Cryptocurrency is easily influenced by news, and technical analysis must combine on-chain data (e.g., BTC holding distribution);
Backtesting: Historical data tests the strategy's performance in bull/bear markets.
Summary: EMA determines direction, MACD observes momentum, RSI controls rhythm, maximizing long position win rate when the three resonate. Strictly execute stop loss discipline to avoid holding risks.