黄粱一梦
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Bearish
The CPI data for March is declining, and it is highly likely to continue in April. The impact of tariffs has a lag, typically appearing six months later, likely around the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter. However, the inflation data for April will be released on May 13, while the interest rate decision will be made at 2 AM on May 8. This means that the upcoming interest rate decision will occur before the inflation data is available, leading to a high probability that the current rate of 4.5% will be maintained without a rate cut.
Since the interest rate decision in May is not expected to cut rates, and inflation data continues to ease, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in June, July, and September is quite high.
This means that after the May interest rate decision, the market will have expectations for a rate cut.
Note that this is crucial: in trading, market expectations often have a greater impact than actual facts.
As mentioned earlier, the inflation data released in May is likely to continue to decline, and the impact of tariffs is expected at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, allowing for speculative opportunities in the meantime.
Based on this logic, it can be judged that there may be some favorable market trends during this period.
Currently, studying technical analysis and fundamentals separately is not very effective; the market is changing, and we can no longer ignore these changes like an ostrich. We must adapt and continuously learn to enhance ourselves, striving to adjust to these changes. Therefore, in the future, I will also try to combine technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment to guide my trading.
Both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market have significant investment value. It is recommended that investors consider investing in both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market simultaneously or switch between them based on timing. For instance, Interactive Brokers has already obtained permission for retail clients in Hong Kong to trade virtual assets, and BiyaPay has also received authorization from the SEC in the United States. Investors can simultaneously invest in Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets on platforms like Interactive Brokers and BiyaPay, allowing for seamless integration of Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets on one platform.
#特朗普暂停新关税 #币安Alpha上新
Since the interest rate decision in May is not expected to cut rates, and inflation data continues to ease, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in June, July, and September is quite high.
This means that after the May interest rate decision, the market will have expectations for a rate cut.
Note that this is crucial: in trading, market expectations often have a greater impact than actual facts.
As mentioned earlier, the inflation data released in May is likely to continue to decline, and the impact of tariffs is expected at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, allowing for speculative opportunities in the meantime.
Based on this logic, it can be judged that there may be some favorable market trends during this period.
Currently, studying technical analysis and fundamentals separately is not very effective; the market is changing, and we can no longer ignore these changes like an ostrich. We must adapt and continuously learn to enhance ourselves, striving to adjust to these changes. Therefore, in the future, I will also try to combine technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and market sentiment to guide my trading.
Both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market have significant investment value. It is recommended that investors consider investing in both Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market simultaneously or switch between them based on timing. For instance, Interactive Brokers has already obtained permission for retail clients in Hong Kong to trade virtual assets, and BiyaPay has also received authorization from the SEC in the United States. Investors can simultaneously invest in Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets on platforms like Interactive Brokers and BiyaPay, allowing for seamless integration of Bitcoin and U.S. stock assets on one platform.
#特朗普暂停新关税 #币安Alpha上新
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