$ETH

Historically, a decisive close below the 50-period EMA has led to an extended bearish trend towards the 200-period EMA (the blue wave).

For example, both in 2021 and 2022, the BTC/XAU pair experienced an initial bounce after testing the 50 EMA, only to finally break below it and fall towards the 200 EMA, as shown above.

This pattern is repeating now in 2025 after two recent tests of the support level at the 50 EMA in 2024 and 2025. The BTC/XAU pair is breaking down, suggesting that a move towards the 200 EMA may be underway, representing a decline of approximately 35%.

Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, offers a similar bearish perspective for the Bitcoin/gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the U.S. stock market.