In cryptocurrency contract trading, constructing a long position strategy requires combining trend judgment and momentum validation. The following is a composite strategy framework based on EMA at its core, supplemented by MACD and RSI:
1. Trend judgment: EMA double line system
1. Parameter selection
Short-term EMA: 7-20 (capturing short-term momentum)
Long-term EMA: 30-50 (filtering market noise)
(It is recommended to use EMA(20)+EMA(50) for BTC/ETH, and shorten to EMA(7)+EMA(30) for altcoins)
2. Long position trigger conditions
Golden cross confirmation: Short-term EMA crosses above long-term EMA
Price position: Closing price stabilizes above double EMA for 2 consecutive candlesticks
Slope validation: Both EMAs are inclined upwards (can be determined by 3-period moving average slope > 0)
3. Dynamic support
Use the short-term EMA as a stop loss reference line, and a price pullback that does not break it is considered an opportunity to add positions.
2. Momentum validation: Three elements of MACD
1. Signal combination
Bar chart momentum: MACD bars turn from negative to positive and increase for 3 consecutive periods
Zero axis breakthrough: MACD line crosses above the zero axis (confirming bullish dominance)
Double line golden cross: MACD line (fast line) crosses above the signal line (slow line)
2. Divergence warning
When the price hits a new high but MACD bars do not synchronize with a new high, be cautious of trend exhaustion and tighten stop loss.
3. Risk control: RSI trend correction
1. New logic for overbought zone
In a strong trend, RSI >70 should not be directly viewed as bearish, but wait:
a) RSI drops below 65
b) Price does not fall below EMA support
At this time, it is a pullback buying point in a continuing trend
2. Fractal divergence strategy
When the price hits a new high but RSI forms a double top/head and shoulders pattern, combined with a flat EMA, it can be an early opportunity to reduce positions.
4. Composite strategy execution process
1. Opening conditions (need triple validation)
✅ EMA golden cross + Price stabilizes above double EMA
✅ MACD bars continue to expand and are above the zero axis
✅ RSI >55 but no top divergence appears
2. Position management
Initial position: Total funds 5%, stop loss set 2% below long-term EMA
Add position: Price rises along EMA and MACD expands for the second time, add 3% for each breakthrough of the previous high
Take profit: EMA death cross or MACD bars continuously shrink for 3 periods
3. Response to extreme market conditions
When the 24-hour increase >30% and RSI >90, initiate dynamic take profit:
Retain the base position, and exit all profits when EMA(7) is broken.
5. Strategy advantages and limitations
Advantages: Triple filtering significantly reduces false breakout interference, EMA+MACD combination captures strong trends
Risk:
1. Sideways fluctuation period may frequently trigger stop loss
2. Black swan events need to be judged in conjunction with on-chain data/news
3. High leverage (>10x) easily penetrated by spikes triggering stop loss
It is recommended to combine with volume breakout (e.g., volume increased by 150% compared to the previous day's average) and Bitcoin dominance analysis as auxiliary validation.