$ETH

🔥 【$ETH/USDT Comprehensive Analysis - Key Phase of Bull and Bear Game】

🌐 Macroeconomic Fundamentals

- Expectations for a shift in Federal Reserve interest rate policy are heating up, with CME data showing a 68% probability of a rate cut in September; historically, $ETH has averaged a 329% increase during rate cut cycles.

- The final decision on the Ethereum ETF is now in a 30-day countdown, with the implied probability rising to 45% (latest Bloomberg survey).

📊 On-Chain Data Insights

1️⃣ Supply Dynamics:

- Since the merge, there has been a net reduction of 458,000 ETH (worth $1.37 billion).

- Exchange balance ratio has dropped to 11.3%, a new low since 2020.

2️⃣ Whale Behavior:

- The top 100 addresses have accumulated an additional 2.9 million ETH in the past two weeks (accounting for 2.4% of the circulating supply).

- Derivative position concentration: $920 million in open contracts piled up in the $3,800-4,200 range.

⚙️ Key Technical Levels

- Weekly Level: The lower boundary of the ascending channel at $3,420 forms a golden cross with the 200-day moving average.

- Key Resistance: $3,880 (2023 high point reversal neckline).

- Breakout Target: $4,600 (1.618 Fibonacci extension level).

💼 Ecosystem Progress

- After the implementation of EIP-4844, Layer 2 transaction fees have decreased by 83%, with daily transaction volume surpassing 4.5 million.

- The latest Dencun upgrade has raised staking APY back to 4.2%, with zero waiting time for staking contracts.

⚠️ Risk Warning

- The SEC lawsuit's final hearing is scheduled for September 18.

- Monitoring of miner/validator address balance fluctuations shows potential selling pressure.

📌 Operational Strategy

- Conservative: Gradually build a position in the $3,500-3,650 range, with a stop loss at $3,380.

- Aggressive: Go long on a volume breakout above $3,880, targeting $4,200.

Can $ETH break through its historical high this round?

#Ethereum #ETHTrading #CryptocurrencyAnalysis