Is the bull market really here? This week, the cryptocurrency market rebounded quickly. Is it a signal of a bull market? Or just a trap?
From last week's meeting with Old Powell in Chicago, to Vice Chair Jefferson speaking on Tuesday at 21:00; the G20 meeting on Wednesday focused mainly on the economy; and the Fed's Wedge Book on Thursday at 2:00 AM;
When the U.S. stock market falls sharply, it is a normal reaction for cryptocurrencies to follow suit. But if cryptocurrencies rise instead of fall, it may indicate potential risks ahead. Cryptocurrencies are like tech stocks on the Nasdaq; if they rise independently, it often signals manipulation by major players, foretelling a bloody market.
When the U.S. stock market crashes, but cryptocurrencies rise independently, it poses a hidden danger. The direction of market shifts is unpredictable, but this strange surge suggests that small black swan events and bloody market conditions are on the way, requiring vigilance.
Market expectations create fluctuations, and reality shapes trends. Currently, the downturn is due to expectations of tariff policies, and only when economic data shows deterioration—such as rising unemployment, increased inflation, or declining retail sales, along with spikes in initial jobless claims or investment bank bankruptcies—can a trend emerge. In 2018, when the trade war began, both the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market initially fell, then saw a slight recovery before accelerating downwards in October. Therefore, this round is similar; it’s best to be bearish without shorting.
The blockchain industry itself has detached from traditional industries, falling into the category of an emerging market. While similar issues may arise in the financial markets, once policies and sentiments settle, they will carve out their own development space.
If you're in the crypto circle, play with cryptocurrencies; if you're in the U.S. stock market, stick to it. I recently bought some Xiaomi shares. If you want to invest in U.S. stocks, I recommend using #biyapay to pay in USDT, which avoids many unnecessary risks, such as fees or the hassle of opening an account. It’s convenient and supports most mainstream coins.
The risks in the market are difficult to avoid. When you hear or see certain news, and the market behaves according to those developments—like the current sentiment that a bull market is here—if you firmly believe the news and think it’s all logical, that’s just what the major players want you to see. There are numerous black swan events;
"The major players are not philanthropists; the financial market follows the 80/20 rule, where only a small portion of people can make money. When you think market news is correct, you’ve already fallen into the trap set by the major players."
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