$BTC Market Analysis: On-chain URPD and RSI Insights (April 20-25, 2025)
1. On-chain URPD Data: Chip Transfer Reveals Market Dynamics
URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) tracks the price of the last movement of BTC, reflecting chip accumulation and indicating support/resistance levels.
April 20:
$83K-$85K: Approximately 1.3 million BTC, strong support.
$93K-$100K: Only about 260,000 BTC, small pressure above.
April 25:
$83K-$85K: Significant reduction in chips.
$93K-$100K: Chips increased to about 620,000.
Around $92K: Chips increased, forming new support.
Interpretation: Low-priced chips are transferring to high prices, reflecting profit-taking and frequent turnover. $92K serves as support, and $96.4K (approximately 392,000 BTC concentrated area) serves as resistance. Without strong momentum, BTC may fluctuate between $92K-$94K.
2. RSI and Investor Behavior: Weakening Momentum
RSI data divides investors into five categories, revealing behavioral changes:
Determined Buyers: Long-term holders who accumulated at low prices are now selling.
Trend Buyers: Momentum chasers whose buying has slowed down, indicating weakening trend momentum.
New Investors: Buying at high prices, possibly retail investors.
Profit-takers: Selling to lock in profits when prices rise.
Loss Surrenderers: Currently inactive.
Observation: RSI (Daily: 80.71, overbought; Weekly: 63.48, neutral) shows short-term overheating. Weakening trend buyers and determined buyers selling indicate insufficient bullish momentum.
3. Market Sentiment and Price Trends
Price Performance: BTC briefly broke above $92.9K but failed to hold $94K, with the market hesitant. ETF inflow ($1.54 billion) did not drive a sustained rise, and bearish pressure increased.
Macro Background: US stocks rose, but BTC did not follow, turning into a fluctuation due to Sino-US tariff tensions. Lack of emotional stimulus and frequent chip turnover reflect a cautious attitude.
Key Levels:
Support: $92K (new chip accumulation).
Resistance: $96.4K (chip concentration), $97K (break-even point).
4. Outlook on Macro Events
April 30 GDP and PCE data may trigger volatility:
Bullish: Weak GDP or cooling PCE may raise interest rate cut expectations, benefiting BTC.
Bearish: Strong GDP or high inflation may strengthen the dollar (BTC and dollar correlation: -0.58), putting pressure on BTC. #BTCvsMarkets 
