Next Pope Odds Skyrocket After Vatican Hoax Targets Crypto Gamblers

Polymarket’s prediction market for the next Pope has surged past $6.4 million in total bets, following a viral social media hoax that falsely claimed the Catholic Church planned to excommunicate gamblers.

The fake notice mimicked an official Vatican statement, denouncing platforms like Polymarket for turning the sacred papal election into a “speculative exercise” and urging the faithful to approach the Conclave with reverence rather than financial intent.

Fake Vatican Notice Fuels $6.4 Million Surge in Polymarket’s Next Pope Bets https://t.co/zjYufhbmWd

— imX (@imcoinx) April 24, 2025

Despite its reach, the post was swiftly debunked.

Observers pointed out several inconsistencies, including the absence of formal ecclesiastical language, improper capitalisation of terms like “Conclave” and “Papal Election,” and the unlikely direct reference to Polymarket—a level of specificity rarely used in Vatican communications.

Yet ironically, the hoax included a screenshot revealing internal data from Polymarket, showing $2.5 million in bets as of 21 April.

Since then, that figure has more than doubled.

Polymarket launched the “Next Pope” market in February amidst speculation about succession, well before Pope Francis’s recent passing.

Polymarket total wagers on the next pope are already closing in on $4 million pic.twitter.com/UiTkaqwmCc

— Morning Brew ☕️ (@MorningBrew) April 22, 2025

A fake notice published by Yoxic, an X (formerly known as Twitter) user with over 240,000 followers, claimed:

“The Holy See deplores the reduction of the solemn conclave to a mere speculative exercise on platforms such as Polymarket and urges the faithful to uphold the dignity of the papal election as a matter of prayerful discernment rather than profit.”

The Catholic Church has excommunicated thousands of crypto gamblers for betting on the next pope on Polymarket pic.twitter.com/KVY7Hj1AEg

— yoxic (@yoxics) April 23, 2025

Following the official start of the Conclave, betting volume has spiked nearly 160% in just three days.

While the Catholic Church has shown limited engagement with the crypto world—aside from rare examples such as dioceses accepting Bitcoin donations—there’s no evidence Church officials are aware of, let alone reacting to, the activity on Polymarket.

Still, the moment underscores a provocative dynamic: the growing intersection between decentralised finance and deeply traditional institutions.

As of today, the “Next Pope” market ranks among Polymarket’s most active

Speculators Flock to Polymarket’s Papal Prediction Market

While the official date for the Conclave to select Pope Francis’s successor has yet to be announced, speculation is already in full swing—both in traditional betting circles and on crypto prediction markets.

Polymarket Chances of becoming next Pope:

🇮🇹 Pietro Parolin: 29%
🇵🇭 Luis Antonio Tagle: 21%
🇮🇹 Matteo Zuppi: 10%
🇭🇺 Peter Erdo: 8%
🇮🇹 Pierbattista Pizzaballa: 8%
🇬🇭 Peter Turkson: 8%
🇬🇳 Robert Sarah: 7%
🇨🇩 Fridolin Ambongo: 3%
🇫🇷 Jean-Marc Aveline: 2%

Who are you rooting for?

— Polymarket (@Polymarket) April 23, 2025

Just days after the Pope’s passing on 21 April, the question of who will lead the Catholic Church next has become one of the most active betting markets of 2025.

Remarkably, it now ranks among the top 30 global betting markets, surpassing even the FA Cup in activity.

Under Church protocol, 135 cardinal electors will gather for the Conclave between 15 and 20 days after the Pope’s death, typically selecting a successor from within their ranks.

But while the Church prepares for a sacred decision, the world outside is already placing its bets—literally.

Is this a sign of modern engagement, or has sacred tradition become just another speculative opportunity?