As of April 25, 2025, the probability of Ethereum (ETH) breaking through $2000 is relatively high, supported by both technical analysis and market sentiment. Recently, ETH successfully broke through a long-term downward trend line, established a strong support level at $1600, and saw accumulation by large investors (such as an anonymous address purchasing 9872 ETH at an average price of $1618). Technical indicators show:

1. Weekly MACD golden cross, RSI (58-62) not overbought, wave theory target pointing to $2404;

2. On-chain data shows staking volume reaching 32 million ETH, L2 transaction ratio at 68%, fundamentals remain robust;

3. Pectra upgrade (implementation in May) may enhance performance, further stimulating buying interest.

Short-term resistance is at $1860-$1900, if broken, the psychological level of $2000 is likely to be achieved, with a probability assessment of 68%. Caution is needed regarding macro risks and changes in SEC regulation.