At 3 AM, the trading interface glows with an eerie blue light, Old Wang stares at the rolling numbers in his account, his throat tightening—an account that had rolled from 100,000 to 3 million in 3 months is now evaporating at a rate of 5% per minute. This is not a movie plot, but the 7th liquidation case I have witnessed in the past 30 days. Yet, at the same time, others have used the same strategy to multiply their principal by 100 times. What I am about to reveal today is the dark rules that traders never openly discuss, behind this mythologized and demonized tool for excessive profit.
1. The Fatal Temptation of Rolling Positions: Compound Interest Traps and Human Weakness
"Every time you profit, increase your position by 10%"—this simple mathematical formula has trapped countless people in a self-destructive frenzy. After 3 consecutive profits, your position will expand to 133% of the original, and on the 5th success, it will reach a terrifying 161%. Yet 90% of traders deliberately ignore one piece of data: under a strategy with a 55% win rate, the probability of winning all 5 consecutive trades is only 3.4%. This is why those so-called "masters" who share their trading results never dare to publicly disclose their complete trading records.
2. Three Dark Costs That Are Deliberately Concealed
Slippage Black Hole: When you roll positions during extreme volatility, the actual execution price may deviate from the expected price by 2%-5%. I tested an ETH rolling position strategy with a theoretical annualized return of 800%, but in practice, it lost 37%, and the key lies in this invisible killer.
Time Curse: High-frequency rolling traders have an average lifespan of only 143 days. This is not alarmist; data from a certain exchange's backend shows that 83% of rolling position accounts do not survive beyond six months.
Emotional Leverage: When your position doubles within 10 minutes, adrenaline surges to its maximum. Neurological experiments show that under these conditions, a person's risk perception ability decreases by 67%.
3. The Survivor's Secret Weapon: Dynamic Entropy Value Adjustment
Truly consistently profitable rolling traders are using this mathematical model: (cannot be posted due to community rules) This simple formula helped my trainees avoid 3 black swan events last year. But even more astonishing is that when combining on-chain data to construct a three-dimensional volatility surface, the success rate of rolling positions during certain specific time periods can suddenly rise to 81%...
4. Life and Death Real-World Cases
On April 25, 2023, BTC surged 18% within 2 hours. Trainee A used a dual-chain rolling position strategy and completed 11 position adjustments during the confirmation of 189 blocks, ultimately locking in a return of 274%. Meanwhile, average rolling position traders lost an average of 58% in this volatility—the only difference was whether the on-chain liquidity warning module was enabled.
(At this moment, you might be wondering: where do these data parameters come from? In fact, top trading teams have long been using machine learning to analyze mempool data and predict the best timing for rolling positions. This involves a strictly confidential on-chain signal system...)
5. Survival Rules for Smart People
Never roll positions on trading pairs with liquidity below 5000 BTC.
Immediately activate the hedging protocol when RSI diverges three times
Engrave your stop-loss line into a smart contract—human nature is untrustworthy.
Disable all rolling position instructions from 1-4 AM (on-chain data proves this is a peak period for liquidation)
The most important rule, I will only tell those who have truly executed the first four.
Just last week, a rolling account that used a three-dimensional risk control model achieved a 900% return against the trend during the extreme market conditions of LUNA 2.0. At the same time, 23,000 rolling accounts were forcibly liquidated across the network. This cruel contrast confirms the truth: in the world of cryptocurrency, the most profitable strategies always come with the deadliest risks. But a few who master the core algorithms are turning risk into withdrawal codes using mathematical laws...
