Ethereum has just recorded its largest single-day accumulation inflow in history, with 449,000 ETH entering accumulation addresses on April 22, despite the cryptocurrency's price falling to the $1,400 range. The massive inflow, worth roughly $786 million at an average price of $1,750, points to strong conviction among long-term holders, even amid a broader market downturn. This marks the highest level of accumulation since 2018, signaling growing confidence in Ethereum’s future. However, these addresses' realized price is $1,981, meaning many of these holders are currently underwater, raising questions about the short-term upside potential.

Active Addresses Rise, But DeFi Activity Still Lags

Network fundamentals show positive momentum, with active Ethereum addresses climbing from 306,211 to 336,366 between April 20 and 22, a 10% increase. This uptick aligns with the accumulation trend, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

Yet, DeFi activity remains stagnant. According to DefiLlama, DEX volume has plateaued, with weekly transactions averaging 1.3 million, reflecting weak user engagement across DeFi protocols. This divergence between network use and investor accumulation creates an uncertain backdrop for Ethereum's next move.

$1,895 Emerges as Key Resistance

Ethereum now faces a major resistance level at $1,895, highlighted by a concentration of 1.64 million ETH accumulated during November 2024, according to the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap. This is further reinforced by technical resistance at the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA)—a zone that typically defines trend direction.

If Ethereum fails to break this level, bearish pressure could mount, especially as ETH remains locked in a macro downtrend. A daily close above $2,142 is essential to invalidate the pattern of lower highs and lower lows and to initiate a meaningful recovery.

Bearish Fractal Sparks Caution Below $1,400

Prominent crypto trader Rektproof warns that Ethereum might be forming a bearish fractal—a repeating chart pattern that previously preceded sharp declines. Ethereum could retest or break below $1,400 if the pattern plays out, especially if broader market sentiment weakens.

While accumulation data suggests strong long-term interest, Ethereum’s path to recovery is fraught with challenges, from weak DeFi momentum to structural resistance. Traders and investors are advised to monitor price action closely, especially as macroeconomic pressures and technical signals collide.

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