In-depth analysis of the truth behind market fluctuations #以太坊的未来

Last night, an international political farce was once again staged. Trump unilaterally declared that "a certain Eastern power has initiated bilateral tariff negotiations," which was subsequently clearly denied by the other party's Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Behind this self-directed drama, it reflects that the U.S. economy is trapped in a "high fever" dilemma—May's core PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield broke through 4.3%, and expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut window may be delayed until September continue to heat up.

The capital market's response can be described as textbook-level. U.S. stocks rebounded for three consecutive days, reaching a key resistance level, with the Nasdaq index forming a double top pattern around 18,400 points.

Even more dramatic is the digital currency market, where Bitcoin staged a "contrarian solo dance," suddenly surging past $64,000 during the U.S. stock adjustment period, but showed signs of capital flight as U.S. stocks warmed up.

This abnormal trend confirms that institutions are leveraging market sentiment for a double kill.

The truth revealed by the technical aspect is even more intriguing. Bitcoin's daily MACD shows a top divergence, and the 4-hour chart forms a standard "rising wedge" breakout, which often signifies a short-term peak signal.

However, the weekly EMA golden cross and CME futures gap theory indicate that there is still potential to push towards $68,000 in the medium term.

Currently, the key support has moved up to $61,500, with the resistance focusing on the $64,800 mark.

Practical advice for investors:

Spot holdings are recommended to be controlled below 50%, with a focus on the fluctuations around the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data and CPI data. Contract traders can consider gradually building short positions in the $63,600-$64,800 range, with a stop-loss set above $65,500. Medium to long-term investors should stagger their investments in three batches below $60,000 to seize the golden window before the Fed's policy shift.