The current price of Bitcoin is around $93,368 and is still moving in an ascending channel. The RSI (14) is standing at ~65, and a bearish divergence has begun to appear, which means that the buying momentum has begun to weaken and the opportunity for making sudden profits or a correction is likely.
MACD is still above zero, confirming that the positive momentum is present, but we need to follow up to see if it will continue or not. The daily VWAP shows the price above the daily Bollinger Bands average. The price is near the upper limit, which gives us the idea that selling at resistance levels could happen at any moment.
On-Chain Metrics
Around 900,000 addresses interact with the network daily, a significant number that is a healthy sign of active usage. The MVRV (Realized Value/Market Capitalization) ratio is around 1.35, and levels above 1.3 often precede a correction before continuing the upward trend.
HODL Waves: 65% of the supply is moving from portfolios that have been in existence for more than a year, which indicates a long-term conviction among the major whales.
Market Derivatives
Open interest is roughly stable around $15 billion, with a slight upward trend, meaning leverage is present but without excessive risk.
Funding Rate is positive by about 0.01% every 8 hours, meaning that longs pay a premium to shorts, but this rate is not worrisome, even if it is a buy signal.
Implied Volatility Skew The options curve is slightly sloping towards the calls, which reflects a bullish market outlook for the medium term.
Public Market Structure
Bitcoin's dominance of BTC is about 49% of the crypto market capitalization, and this has been constant since the beginning of the year. This means that the rest of the altcoins are trying to catch up with Bitcoin, but it controls half of the market on its own.
Altcoin recovery: Projects like Ethereum and Solana have seen their TVL (Total Value Locked) increase by around 10-15% from April 1st to date, opening up an opportunity for the upcoming Altcoin Season.
A Fear & Greed index of around 65 (Greed) means moderate risk.
Macro View
The US Federal Reserve is sticking to its benchmark interest rate at 5.25–5.50%, with expectations of a gradual rate cut before the end of 2025. This move has prompted investors to look beyond traditional instruments for returns, turning to alternative assets like Bitcoin. Inflation is also stable at around 3–3.5%, reducing pressure on central banks and maintaining liquidity in the market. At the same time, US economic data indicates relative stability (unemployment remains stable, and the manufacturing sector is performing well), all of which generates a notion that liquidity will continue to seek higher-yielding opportunities, including cryptocurrencies.
A good buying opportunity if we see a slight correction of the RSI at $91,800 or lower.
If institutional inflows (through ETFs) and DeFi expansion continue, we expect to see new highs, especially as the halving approaches.
Monitor the funding rate and any sudden increases in Open Interest as an early warning of any strong volatility.
The most important thing is to remain flexible.
Monitor fundamental and technical indicators and take advantage of any good correction to enter with a clear plan. The market will show you the way. Of course, this is just an analysis and opinion, not financial advice.
