As of April 25, 2025, the trend of Bitcoin (BTC) shows a high-level volatility pattern, with technical aspects and macro factors intertwining to influence market direction:

1. Short-term technical game, Bitcoin recently broke through the resistance level of $88,000, once surging above $93,000, but technical indicators show potential retracement risks. The daily MACD indicates a top divergence, the RSI is close to the overbought zone (74.49), and the 4-hour chart has repeatedly shown long upper shadows, indicating significant selling pressure above. The short-term support level is around $90,000; if it falls below, it may drop to the range of $85,500-$86,000.

2. Macroeconomic and funding support, expectations of interest rate cuts in the U.S., a weakening dollar index, and institutional funds continuously flowing in via ETFs (net inflow exceeding $1 billion from April 21-22) provide upward momentum for Bitcoin. After gold prices reached a historic high, Bitcoin's safe-haven attribute as 'digital gold' has further strengthened, with the market expecting it may break previous highs in the next five months.

3. Policy risks and market sentiment, adjustments to the tariff policy by the Trump administration (such as temporary exemptions) have alleviated some market pressure, but policy uncertainty remains. At the same time, risks such as Satoshi Nakamoto's holding of coins and other 'black swan' events may trigger extreme volatility.

4. Long-term trends, increased institutional holdings (e.g., MicroStrategy holds over 500,000 BTC), several countries incorporating Bitcoin into their strategic reserves, combined with the lagging effects of the 2024 halving, suggest a long-term target price of $150,000-$200,000.

In summary, Bitcoin needs to be cautious of technical corrections and policy disturbances in the short term, but in the medium to long term, under the backdrop of increased institutional holdings, safe-haven demand, and liquidity easing, it still has breakout potential. Investors need to pay attention to the breakthrough of key support/resistance levels and the guidance of macro data (such as CPI, Federal Reserve policies) on market sentiment.