Below is a strategy suitable for intraday trading: 'Trend Breakout + Momentum Confirmation', combined with technique $Conan
1. Core Logic of the Strategy
Utilize the momentum effect when short-term trends break through key price levels to capture intraday rapid volatility opportunities, while filtering false signals through indicators to control risk.
2. Applicable Markets and Time Periods
1. Market Selection:
- High liquidity instruments (e.g., A-share CSI 300 constituent stocks, forex direct currency pairs, gold/oil futures, etc.), avoiding targets with low trading volume or abnormal volatility.
2. Time Period:
- Main chart: 15-minute candlestick (observing short-term trends)
- Assistance: 1-hour candlestick (to confirm medium-term direction, ensuring that intraday trading is consistent with larger cycle trends)
3. Key Indicators and Signals
1. Trend Confirmation (1-hour chart):
- Moving Average (MA): 20-period MA (to judge short-term trends); if the price is above the MA, it is considered bullish; if below, bearish.
2. Breakout Signals (15-minute chart):
- Key Price Levels: Intraday high and low points (or the previous trading day closing price, and the high and low points formed in the first 30 minutes of the session).
- Trading Volume: The trading volume during the breakout must be more than 50% above the average of the previous 5 candlesticks (confirming momentum).
3. Momentum Filtering:
- RSI (14): During breakouts, RSI should be above 50 and rising (bullish breakout), or below 50 and falling (bearish breakout), avoiding false breakouts in overbought or oversold areas.
4. Trading Steps
1. Early Session Preparation (9:30-10:00, taking A-shares as an example)
- Mark the previous trading day's closing price, and the highest price (H) and lowest price (L) formed in the first 30 minutes, as key breakout levels for the day.
- Confirm 1-hour chart trend: if the price is above 20MA, focus on buying on dips; if below, focus on selling on rallies.
2. Entry Rules
- Bullish Breakout:
- Price breaks above the early session high H, and the 1-hour chart trend is upward, while the 15-minute RSI > 50.
- Entry Point: Pullback near H after breakout (confirming that support is effective), or place an order directly during the breakout.
- Bearish Breakout:
- Price breaks below the early session low L, and the 1-hour chart trend is downward, while the 15-minute RSI < 50.
- Entry Point: Pullback near L after breakout (confirming that resistance is effective), or place an order directly during the breakout.
3. Stop Loss and Take Profit
- Stop Loss: Breakout failure (e.g., after a bullish breakout, falling back below H, or after a bearish breakout, bouncing back above L), set stop loss at the breakout point minus 1-2 minimum fluctuation units (e.g., for stocks set at 0.5%, for forex set at 10-20 pips).
- Take Profit:
- Target 1: Near the intraday high/low (or yesterday's closing price), about 1-2 times the stop loss space.
- Dynamic Take Profit: After making a profit, move the stop loss to the cost price, or use a moving average (e.g., 5-period MA) to trail the stop loss, closing the position if breached.
4. Position Management
- Single trade risk should not exceed 1-2% of total capital (e.g., with 100,000 yuan principal, if the single stop loss is 500 yuan, position size ≤ 50,000 yuan).
- Limit on intraday trading frequency: no more than 3 times to avoid overtrading.
5. Notes
1. Avoid Extreme Market Conditions:
- Major data releases (e.g., non-farm payrolls, central bank interest rate decisions) often lead to increased volatility that can trigger false breakouts; it is advisable to wait and see.
2. Discipline First:
- Strictly execute stop losses and take profits; do not hold onto losing positions or chase after rising or falling prices. If a breakout does not reach the target but the trend flattens (volume shrinks, indicators diverge), consider closing the position early.
3. Review and Optimize:
- Daily record of trading signal success rates and win-loss ratios, adjusting breakout amplitudes and indicator parameters for different instruments (e.g., futures varieties can relax volatility thresholds).
6. Strategy Advantages and Disadvantages
- Advantages:
- Capture opportunities using early session volatility, in line with the 'short and quick' characteristics of intraday trading.
- Combine multi-timeframe trends and momentum indicators to filter invalid breakouts and improve win rates.
- Disadvantages:
- In a volatile market, stop losses may be triggered frequently; it is necessary to combine a wait-and-see strategy during range fluctuations (e.g., do not trade when the price is in a narrow range between H-L).
Example (using a certain active A-share stock as an example)
- Early session high of 10.5 yuan and low of 10.0 yuan in the first 30 minutes, with the price on the 1-hour chart above the 20MA (trending upwards).
- If the price breaks above 10.5 yuan, with increased volume, RSI = 60, go long, stop loss at 10.4 yuan (below the breakout point), take profit target at 10.8 yuan (previous day's high).
- If the price falls back below 10.4 yuan after the breakout, exit with a stop loss, and do not trade that instrument for the day.
