BTC#晚间思路
Bitcoin has performed relatively steadily during the Asia-Europe trading session, rebounding after falling to support levels. The key now is whether the U.S. stock market can continue to rise; if it can stabilize around 92,000, there will be a chance to surge higher.
Current trend analysis:
A downtrend signal has appeared on the 4-hour level, but it is already close to previous highs and resistance zones, indicating potential short-term pullback risks.
The MACD indicator shows weakening upward momentum, further indicating the need for adjustment.
If it rises to 96,000, the bears may be forced to close positions amounting to about 700 million dollars, but there are too many trapped positions here, with previous high-price buyers waiting to break even, making it hard to break through.
If it falls to 88,000, the bulls will face a liquidation of 1.4 billion dollars, and if it drops to 82,000, the liquidation amount will soar to 3.6 billion. This significant disparity indicates that the main force may first push up to 96,000 for testing, then crash down to 90,000 or even 88,000.
Let’s predict the upcoming market:
Upper resistance: There is strong resistance around 96,000, making it difficult to break through in the short term.
Lower support: There is a large amount of bottom-fishing capital and stop-loss orders around 88,000, so a drop to this level may trigger a rebound.
Overall pattern: There is a high probability of oscillating between 88,000 and 96,000, with no significant rise or fall expected for now.
Operational advice:
Near 96,000, reduce positions or take profits; don’t be greedy.
If it drops to the 88,000-90,000 range, you can gradually buy in, betting on a rebound.
Expecting a consolidation washout until June, after which a new round of increases may begin.