I. Easing tariffs: Trade frictions are cooling, and market sentiment is warming.
Event: Trump publicly acknowledged on April 22 that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are too high and plans to significantly reduce tax rates.
Impact:
Decreased demand for safe-haven assets: Tariff frictions had previously led to capital pouring into safe-haven assets like gold and the dollar; now market volatility (VIX index) has significantly decreased.
Rebound in risk assets: The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks has strengthened. After the easing of tariffs, the rise in U.S. stocks boosted the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. For example, on April 23, Bitcoin's price briefly surpassed $94,000, with a single-day increase of over 6%.
Operational advice: Pay attention to the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations. If tariff policies are further relaxed, it may attract more funds to shift from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies.
II. Expectations of interest rate easing: The rate-cutting cycle may inject liquidity.
Data: CME interest rate futures indicate that the market expects the Federal Reserve may start cutting rates in June, with three cuts projected for the year.
Impact:
Lower cost of capital: Interest rate cuts usually increase market liquidity, and some funds may flow into high-risk assets (such as Bitcoin) in pursuit of higher returns.
Weaker dollar: A decline in interest rates may lead to a depreciation of the dollar, and since Bitcoin is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar will directly push up its price. For example, on April 23, the dollar index dropped by 0.5%, and Bitcoin's price rose by 6% at the same time.
Risk warning: The Zhongjin research report indicates that inflation may rise again in mid-2025, and the rate-cutting cycle may end early, so caution is needed regarding the risk of a policy shift.
III. Favorable policies: The U.S. accelerates its layout in the cryptocurrency industry.
Strategic reserves and state legislation:
Trump signed an executive order promoting 'strategic Bitcoin reserves' and 'U.S. digital asset reserves'. Arizona has passed a bill allowing state governments to invest 10% of public funds in Bitcoin.
If this bill is enacted, it will become the first U.S. state to support Bitcoin with public funds, potentially attracting more institutions to follow suit.
Stablecoin legislation:
(GENIUS Act) and (STABLE Act) have passed the committee and are expected to be implemented in the second half of 2025, providing a compliance framework for stablecoins, which may drive the expansion of stablecoin markets like USDT and USDC.
SEC leadership change:
New SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is friendly to cryptocurrencies and has promised to reduce enforcement actions against crypto companies, supporting industry innovation. For example, he plans to terminate pending lawsuits against platforms like Coinbase.
The market interprets this as reduced regulatory uncertainty. After the nomination announcement on April 22, Bitcoin's price rose by 5% in a single day.
IV. Technical reversal: The bearish trend ends, and bullish signals appear.
Market performance:
Since mid-March, Bitcoin's increase (about 20%) has far exceeded that of U.S. stocks (the S&P 500 rose 5% during the same period), indicating capital shifting from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies.
Technical indicators:
RSI bottom divergence: On April 8, Bitcoin's price hit a new low, but the RSI indicator did not decline simultaneously, suggesting a possible rebound after being oversold.
MACD golden cross: The MACD fast line (DIF) crosses above the slow line (DEA), and both lines rise above the zero axis, indicating a trend shift from bearish to bullish.
On-chain data:
Net outflow from exchanges: Recently, the amount of Bitcoin transferred out of exchange wallets has increased, indicating that investors prefer to hold long-term.
Whale accumulation: The number of addresses holding more than 1,000 Bitcoins has increased, suggesting that institutional capital may be positioning at lower levels.
Short-term funding opportunities: Three directions to seize dividends.
Policy catalyst:
Focus on state bill progress: If the Arizona bill passes, it may trigger other states to follow suit, boosting demand for Bitcoin.
Track stablecoin legislation: If the (GENIUS Act) passes, liquidity for stablecoins will increase, benefiting mainstream currencies such as USDT.
Capital flow:
ETF capital inflow: BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw a single-day inflow of $1.1 billion, setting a historical high. Institutional capital trends can be tracked through CoinShares weekly reports.
Derivatives market: The number of outstanding Bitcoin options contracts has increased, with a rising proportion of call options, indicating market expectations of a short-term rise.
Technical signals:
Support level: $90,000 is a key support; if it falls below, caution is needed for a correction; resistance is at $95,000, and if broken, it may test $100,000.
Indicator combination: Combining MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands, when the price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band and RSI is overbought, short-term profit-taking can be considered.
Risk warning
Policy uncertainty: Trump's tariff policy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may fluctuate; attention should be paid to the April FOMC meeting and May CPI data.
Market volatility: Bitcoin's short-term increase is too large; if U.S. stocks or gold correct, it may trigger a downward trend in cryptocurrencies.
Regulatory risk: Although the SEC has a new chair, the details of the stablecoin bill still need observation; if legislation falls short of expectations, it may dampen market sentiment.
Summary: Layout strategy.
Short-term (1-3 months): Buy on dips, focusing on the $90,000 support level, with a target price of $95,000 - $100,000.
Medium-term (3-6 months): If policies are enacted, it can be held until $120,000, but a stop-loss should be set (e.g., below $85,000).
Long-term: With Bitcoin halving approaching (April 2025), the long-term trend is positive, and dollar-cost averaging can be considered.
