#比特币市值排名 btc Cycle Iron Law:

Federal Reserve interest rate policy has not turned → Liquidity trap continues → Above 94,000 is all liquidity illusion

(Historical data: During the 2018 rate hike cycle, BTC plummeted 73% from 61,000 to 16,000)

Capital black hole effect:

Above 100,000, the trapped positions reached ⚡️ 187,000 BTC (Unresolved positions at the peak of the 2021 bull market)

The main force needs to create panic selling → Use a 3-month cycle to digest the pressure above

Tsunami warning mechanism:

Current market leverage ratio 1.7 times → Reached historical warning line (Pre-liquidation wave level of 1.6 times in 2022)

(Technical signal: If RSI monthly line > 70 continues for 3 months → Must trigger mean reversion)

Conservation law of long and short energy

Upward momentum formula:

Total increase = (New capital amount - Unresolved selling pressure) × Leverage multiplier

Current gap: A net inflow of 600 billion USD is needed to break through the 110,000 resistance level